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Provincial hurling permutations: final-day drama in store in Leinster and Munster championships

We've worked out all the many possibilities in the final round of action
We've worked out all the many possibilities in the final round of action

It was another gripping weekend in the Leinster and Munster hurling championships.

Dublin went close to a rare win over the Cats, an umpire had the gall to make the correct call for a decisive 65 in Ennis and there were 20 goals scored across five matches.

The round-robin stages will conclude on Sunday but what is on the line for the 11 counties?

Leinster

Kilkenny's narrow victory in Parnell Park guarantees they will maintain their record of progressing from every edition of the group phase (still only in its fifth instalment) – a feat only shared by Limerick.

But they will only be sure of a place in a seventh consecutive Leinster final and the chance to win five in a row if they avoid defeat at home to Wexford.

Easier said than done, the Model Men having beaten them on the last day in 2022 and 2023, albeit Kilkenny were already all but assured of a place in the final last year.

Wexford needed those points to avoid relegation 12 months ago but things are looking much healthier this time around. If Keith Rossiter’s men win then they are into a first provincial decider since their successful summer of 2019.

A draw would be enough to secure third as Wexford have the advantage over Galway (head to head) and Dublin (score difference in the games between the teams concerned) if those two also can’t be separated and the three teams end up on six points behind Kilkenny.

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The Tribesmen and the Dubs can only both qualify if they draw in Pearse Stadium (live on RTÉ2/Player) and Kilkenny win. In that scenario Micheál Donoghue’s current team would be in the final, his former one third and Wexford out on their ears.

Victory for either puts them into the final. If Galway are beaten they will be out, regardless of what happens at UPMC Nowlan Park, due to their defeat in Wexford. If both Dublin and Wexford lose, then Wexford would secure third spot on account of their superior scoring difference, thanks largely to Sunday's big win over Carlow.

A win for Wexford and a Galway-Dublin draw would leave the latter two level on six points with Kilkenny, and the reigning champions would be into the final on mini-group scoring difference (+2) ahead of Galway (0) with Dublin (-2) missing out on the All-Ireland SHC stages.

Thankfully, the relegation is a little more straightforward. Carlow have to win against Antrim in Corrigan Park to send their opponents down instead, otherwise they’re heading straight back to the Joe McDonagh, despite having taken a point off Kilkenny.

Munster

Over in Munster, the Lazaruses from Leeside look to have done it again, bouncing back from losing their first two games to finish on four points after annihilating Tipperary at Semple Stadium on Sunday.

Cork aren't quite guaranteed to finish in the top three yet though and they will be anxiously watching events at the TUS Gaelic Grounds (live on RTÉ2/Player).

A draw between Limerick and Waterford would knock them out, unless Clare fall to a shock defeat against already eliminated Tipp, who could only even finish fourth if they somehow made up a 35-point scoring deficit on the Déise.

Though of course, there was a surprise on the final afternoon in Semple Stadium last year between a team that looked destined for the final and one that only had pride to play for…

If Clare avoid the banana skin in Thurles and win or draw then they will be back in the Munster final for a third year in a row.

If they lose and Limerick win, the Banner would still edge Cork for the second final place on the head to head. But if they lose and Waterford win, Clare will almost certainly finish behind Cork and Limerick in fourth, scoring difference in every game counting in the province prized by rule-makers and politicians. Cork would even make the final in that scenario.

Win and Waterford are in the final, draw and they need Clare to win to take third, lose and they are out.

John Kiely’s side will be back in the decider seeking a sixth consecutive provincial title if they win or draw. Though if they lose to Waterford then Limerick would need Tipperary to beat Clare, otherwise they would be squeezed out for third by the Rebels on the head to head.

Not how you would expect the quest for hurling's first five in a row to end.

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Watch the conclusion of the provincial hurling championships, Galway v Dublin (2pm) and Limerick v Waterford (4pm), on Sunday on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, Tipperary v Clare on RTÉ News Channel (4pm), follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1

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