We're nearing the finish line in Allianz Hurling League group stages that will have big repercussions for next season.
In 2025, for the first time in 12 years, only teams from Division 1A will be eligible to win the Division 1 title, with 1B serving as Division 2 in all but name.
The fact that there will also be seven teams in each division will make for a greater disparity between the tiers, and counties seem to be showing more appetite for the spring contests as a result.
At the outset last month, it seemed more likely that the best fourth-placed team - a play-off only happens if scores are identical - would come from Division 1 Group B but Dublin’s underwhelming form has put them in danger of the drop.
If the top two divisions next year were being calculated based on current positions, they would comprise:
Division 1A: Kilkenny, Clare, Wexford, Limerick, Tipperary, Galway, Cork
Division 1B: Waterford, Offaly, Dublin, Westmeath, Antrim, Carlow, Laois
Heading into this weekend’s penultimate round of fixtures, it is clear that some counties have a lot of work to do if they are to qualify for the upper tier.
In Group A, Cork will expect to win in Offaly, bringing them to 4 points, while Wexford would move to 5 if they beat Waterford (2).
Both results combined would make it impossible for Davy Fitzgerald's men to finish fourth as Cork have the edge on them on the head to head. A draw in Walsh Park would take things to the final day.
The winners of Kilkenny v Clare (both 5) will guarantee their place in the semi-finals if the Yellowbellies aren’t victorious. A draw would put them both through if the Déise take the points.
In Group B, All-Ireland and League champions Limerick face the only other side with a 100% record in Tipperary. The winners at SuperValu Páirc Ui Chaoimh are into the semis.
But Tipp could afford to lose and still make the final four as long as they take the points in Antrim in round five. If they lose on Saturday, the Treaty will probably need a result against Galway on St Patrick’s Day, when they will be back in the Gaelic Grounds.
Arguably the most consequential game of the weekend then is Micheál Donoghue’s return to Salthill. Following a narrow win over Antrim and heavy defeats to Tipperary and Limerick, Dublin have a points difference of -28.
Another loss would mean them finishing with a maximum of 4 points and requiring a huge winning margin in the concluding game against Westmeath to have any chance of finishing as the best fourth-placed side.
Dublin’s slim prospects then would rely on Waterford (+9) narrowly beating Wexford (0) before losing heavily to Kilkenny, Cork (-2) being run close by Offaly and thumped by the Slaneysiders, or a Wexford-Waterford draw followed by final-day wins for the Rebels and Kilkenny.
Wexford could even finish fourth in Group A on five points, making score difference irrelevant.
Of course, the Dubs could ensure control of their own destiny by getting a result in Pearse Stadium but if they don’t then Donoghue’s men at least need to keep things close.
The winner from Antrim’s trip to Westmeath could potentially also still finish fourth on four points but they are even worse off in terms of scoring difference.
The top two from the current Division 2A will be in the final and 1B next year and Carlow (6 points) would confirm their place by winning at home to third-placed Down (3).
In that event, a win for Laois (4) over Meath (2) would put the Mourne men out of contention but Kerry (2) would take things to the final day in O'Moore Park if they beat Kildare (1). Down drawing or winning in Carlow this weekend would make for a grand finale on 16 March.
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