As the eyes of the golfing world focus in on Augusta National this week, the pre-tournament chatter has centred on two pre-Masters narratives.
The first being the fact that the stars may just be aligning for Rory McIlroy and the other regarding Scottie Scheffler's attempt to win three of the last four Masters – a feat last achieved almost 60 years ago.
The two parallel storylines are understandable because Scheffler has been the most dominant World No 1 ranked player since Tiger Woods, while McIlroy is the form golfer of 2025, winning twice on the PGA Tour before reaching this pivotal part of the year.
It would follow a well-beaten path of recent pre-Masters tournament history if the World No 2 finally dons a green jacket on Sunday and to be accurate in assessing his chances, it’s more a case of the stats aligning rather than the stars.
McIlroy is the only player in the field this year with multiple PGA Tour titles before the big show moved down Magnolia Lane last weekend. His campaign this year looks very similar to the ones forged by the last three Masters champions who were each on serious winning streaks of form before their victories in Georgia.
McIlroy’s success in the Signature event Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February among an elite restricted field was followed by a second Players Championship in March.
Both wins were admirable in different ways.
At Pebble, there was a mature blend of aggressive and conservative strategies exemplified by the eagle three on the 14th followed by his chess-master-like calculated approach to his safe drama-free winning par on 18th.
Then at the Players Championship, he dug out a victory while not actually striking the ball very well all week. On show in Sawgrass was a pragmatic 'whatever it takes’ approach and a desire to win even if it meant it wasn’t pretty at times.
His driving accuracy was off all week, languishing near the end of the field, and yet he found a way.
With the phrase that Tiger coined "all that matters is the W" ringing in his ears, McIlroy finds himself now with two big titles under his belt in the last 10 weeks and the kind of pre-Masters form which is reminiscent of the last three champions.
Scheffler won three times in 2022 before putting on his first green jacket as had Jon Rahm in 2023 while Scheffler, like McIlroy, won a Signature event and the Players prior to his success last year.
However, in the broadest sense of looking ahead to this week without wearing green tinted glasses, it’s still a given that Scheffler is the true Masters favourite, even if he is winless so far this year.
The 2024 Player of the Year has a cruising speed in men's professional golf right now which is easily on a par with McIlroy from tee to green, even if they go about it in different ways.
However, his ham-fisted attempt to make himself useful at home over Christmas, indirectly resulted in the breaking of the spell he had created with his nine wins in 2024.
The resultant kitchen knife injury was more than a plausible explanation for a slow start to the season, but in the last few weeks, Scheffler 2.0 seemed to launch two weeks ago at the Houston Open where, with rounds of 62 and 63 along the way to a tied runner-up finish, it all looked awfully similar to his remarkable 2024 campaign.
In particular, it was notable that his one occasional Achilles heel - putting - was actually really sharp in Houston as he was in the top-10 overall in that strokes-gained category and number one inside 10 feet.
He has the look of a player who has found his game just when it matters and he seemed to endorse that notion this week in his press conference.
"This year, coming off an injury was definitely a different feeling than I’ve had in the last few years, but I would say I feel very prepared for this golf tournament," he said. "This is definitely the most prepared that I’ve felt all year."
Scheffler has one other major advantage over McIlroy because he's mostly a stone-cold killer when he gets into the lead, especially in final rounds
Outside of the meticulously compiled stats in golf, which don’t matter a heap when the pressure is applied on the back nine on Sunday, Scheffler has one other major advantage over McIlroy because he’s mostly a stone-cold killer when he gets into the lead, especially in final rounds.
In last year’s Masters victory, he birdied the 8th, 9th and 10th holes on Sunday and made three more by the 16th on his way to a four-stroke victory.
It’s a trump card that he wields particularly well around Augusta where his distance control and general iron play skillset - probably the best seen since peak-Tiger - has been arguably the biggest factor in separating him from the field in his two successes.
Speaking of ball-striking machines, Collin Morikawa can go a bit under the radar in spite of two majors to his name by the age of 24, but as good as his golf has been since the start of 2024, he hasn’t had a victory in that time and that tendency of playing well but not well enough to win has become habit-forming.
Xander Schauffele’s intercostal muscle rib injury in 2025 - an awful one for golfers - has seen him struggle to regain that edge he finally revealed last year with his USPGA and Open Championship victories.
Jon Rahm, the 2023 champion, will bring his intense brooding presence to Augusta with the semblance of a player trying to prove something since his $300m move to LIV Golf, but he plays like he’s got a chip on his shoulder every time he turns up for a major since he left the PGA Tour.
He’s become a top-10 cash machine on the LIV circuit but that form transferred very inconsistently to the majors in 2024.
It’s a somewhat similar story with Brooks Koepka, but he at least has a major to his name since joining LIV as has Bryson de Chambeau and both are serious contenders around Augusta.
Koepka had a serious chance on back nine Sundays in 2019 and 2023, while De Chambeau led after rounds one and two last year before tying for sixth place, easily his best Masters finish.
The LIV star of 2025 Joaquin Niemannn should be a factor and his name has popped up on several occasions on Masters leaderboards, but he has never really contended in any major and is zero for 22 in his career in the big championships.
For a decent outside punt, 2015 champion Jordan Spieth’s golf-DNA has made some imprint in the soil of Augusta. His winter wrist surgery could yet unlock some of what has made him a force in the Masters which was luminously on display as recently as 2023 when his final round 63 pushed him up into a tie for fourth place.
But if there’s an ‘outside-the-top-10’ prediction right now which looks ready to make history, there aren’t many better than the World No 13 Shane Lowry.
All that’s missing in the last year is a solo win. The golf he’s playing right now throughout most of the statistical categories is arguably the most consistent it has ever been. He knows it too and at 38, he may not have many better chances in his career.
"I’m in a good place," he says ahead of his latest Masters tilt. "My game, mentally, physically, everything about it I’m feeling good. I’m excited for the week."
"I need to go out there and just take the bull by the horns and be myself."
