Two questions are dominating the conversation ahead of the 124th US Open, which begins at the Pinehurst No 2 course in North Carolina on Thursday.
The first is 'who can stop Scottie Scheffler?' and the second is 'will the course be close to unplayable as the severely undulating greens bake out under a scorching sun?'
Let’s look at the Scheffler question first. The world number one is on a run that it is unparalleled since Tiger Woods was in his pomp. He’s not as flashy as Woods nor as emotional on the course; there are no uppercut fist pumps. However, he is putting together a Tiger-like season, with five wins and two seconds in his last eight tournaments. While he ‘only’ finished tied eighth in last month’s PGA Championship, he was literally and metaphorically handcuffed when he was somewhat ludicrously arrested and had to start his warm-up in a jail cell a few hours before his opening round.
One of his greatest strengths is that he seems unflappable. In any round, in any tournament not everything will go right. At the Memorial last weekend, a bad bounce of a tree sent his ball out of bounds and he ran up a triple bogey at the ninth in the third round. He was three under for the next six holes and back in control.
"I try not to think about the past too much, and I try not to think about the future too much, and I just try and live in the present," he said in his press conference. "Sometimes it's easier and sometimes it's a bit harder. I feel like coming off last week, I was really excited and celebrated for a few minutes there, but my mind kind of just goes on to the next thing. I was getting ready, trying to get out of there and trying to prep for this week."
You can be sure that the rest of the field will be wondering 'what did Scottie shoot?'. No wonder when you read the views of some of his chief rivals.
Whether even Scheffler stays on an even keel this week may be determined by the course conditions. It is a 7,540-yard par 70 and while firm fairways will allow the ball to run and perhaps allow an extra iron or two off the tee, it’s the greens that are causing consternation. Described by some as "upturned cereal bowls", the landing area for some approach shots is minute, depending on hole location, and the run-offs are severe, often down steep slopes with balls rolling into the 'native areas’ that border the fairways – think sandy soil with sporadic clumps of dune-like grasses. Without the finest of touches and the odd bit of luck, a recovery chip can result in the ball returning close to its original position or, if slightly heavy-handed, going over the far side of the green leaving a different but similar problem.
Even back on Monday, defending champion Wyndham Clark said that "they are extremely fast. If they get any firmer and faster they'd be borderline. They already are borderline. As far as practicing the biggest thing is where you leave yourself on the greens. Today, I went with my caddie and we just were really charting to certain pins, like we'd rather be here than there. Sometimes that almost could mean, not that you're trying to miss a green, but you're erring towards the easier up and down."
The center of the greens are recommended at Pinehurst.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 11, 2024
😳 @USOpenGolf pic.twitter.com/Amlj7VKBkk
Woods added that in practice rounds he was "guilty as well as the rest of the guys I've played with – we've putted off a lot of greens. It depends how severe the USGA wants to make this and how close they want to get us up to those sides. But I foresee, just like in 2005, watching some of the guys play ping-pong back and forth. It could happen."
Shane Lowry criticised USGA officials when they felt compelled to water the greens in the middle of the second round at Brookline two years ago, giving those playing after the watering a softer target. He took to Instagram to ask "In what stratosphere is this fair @usga". Before Instagram, there was a similar fiasco at Shinnecock Hills in 2004.
Watching Lowry play nine holes in practice on Tuesday alongside Tommy Fleetwood and Sam Horsfield, they certainly spent an even larger proportion of their time than usual on and around the putting surfaces.
"It’s probably going to be won and lost around the greens to be honest," opined Lowry. "It’s very hard to hit greens and when you miss them some of the spots are very tricky. There’s going to be a little bit of luck involved, a lot of 15-footers for par. It’s going to be one of the tougher US Opens. I’m trying not to talk myself out of it too much, there’s a lot of negative talk going on between the players. It’s going to be so hard, you just try to stay in your own lane, try and do your best and see where that leaves you."
As per usual, Rory McIlroy is the most likely of the four Irish players to get into the mix and he has surely given his fellow Holywood native Tom McKibbin some advice in the practice round they played together.
It’s a first major for 21-year old McKibbin having earned his spot by birdieing five of the final seven holes to come through the International qualifier at Walton Heath last month. Michael Campbell did the same when he won this title at Pinehurst in 2005 but the New Zealander had a lot more experience under his belt and it’s certainly a stretch to imagine McKibbin doing similar.
Seamus Power also came through a qualifier with a final-hole birdie and has had some decent finishes on the PGA Tour this season but no top-10s. Although based in North Carolina for some years before relocating to Nevada, he had never had the chance to play Pinehurst No 2 before this week.
"I hope they [the USGA] are also keeping an eye on the forecast. There’s videos going around from yesterday of someone just dropping a ball on a green ending up 40 yards away. They’re going to have to be careful. You can feel it really drying out and it’s going to get browner and faster. They’re going to have to stay on top of it. It’s a brutal test."
Whether anyone can score better in that test than Scottie Scheffler will be determined over the next four days.
