While Dublin are still officially deemed favourites for this weekend's All-Ireland semi-final, many have decided that an alternative history is about to run its course.
They have consulted their own intuition, examined the feeling in their own water, and have decided that what will now happen is that Mayo will beat Dublin on Saturday and then lose the All-Ireland final to Kerry three weeks later.
This prediction is usually made with amused relish. Though many would sincerely love to see Mayo finally win the All-Ireland, others, especially those in Galway and Roscommon, are gleeful about their repeated final losses. (This isn't universal in Galway, where some old-fashioned pan-Connacht solidarity still survives in a few quarters, though Frankie Dolan's recent book tour seemed to indicate conclusively where the Rossies stand.)
Those hardy folk who rely on instinct and intuition when making their pre-match predictions don't tend to consult anything so wonkish as the injury news, so doubts about the availability of the reigning Young Footballer of the Year would not faze them.
Another, admittedly rather niche, grouping harbour less malice towards Mayo football but fear that if they do get over the line, it will rob the association of a treasured narrative, one which is perhaps worthy of a 30 for 30 documentary one day. There's nothing like a lengthy quest for a holy grail to promote fanaticism. (Already, one has noticed that Liverpool fans on social media have calmed down since 2020 and become marginally less annoying). The air of romance that attaches itself to Mayo will begin to dissipate once they get their hands on Sam.
It would be in keeping with Mayo's historical luck that when they do finally get over a Dublin team whose star is beginning to wane, a Kerry team full of youthful galacticos should emerge.
They don't appear to have the gift for timing. For instance, had the explosive Mayo team of 2013 emerged three years earlier, there'd surely have been no one in 2010 championship capable of stopping them. There was perhaps no finer example of their poor sense of timing than the 2014 championship - the one year when Jim Gavin's Dublin were caught on the hop, Mayo had already frittered away a highly winnable semi-final against Kerry the evening before.
In his second stint in charge, James Horan has effected a smooth transition between an old Mayo team and a relatively new-ish one. In his first season back, Mayo claimed the Allianz League title but then embarked on a fairly scratchy championship campaign, which began with a home loss to Roscommon (Horan's only Connacht championship loss in a cumulative total of seven seasons as manager) and ended with a heavy defeat to Dublin in the All-Ireland semi-final. There was a resigned acceptance after that game that it marked the end of an era for a generation of Mayo players.
To a great extent, it did, though only Andy Moran actually retired. Others like Keith Higgins and Donal Vaughan stayed among the squad for another year but were more or less permanent residents of the subs bench for the Covid shortened championship. Then there were the spate of retirements, staggered one after the other, at the beginning of January.
However as the old stock departed, another crop of Mayo players had already come on stream to take the reins. Their squad currently is a potent blend of the old and the new, with Oisin Mullin (around whose fitness there is much speculation), Matthew Ruane, Ryan O'Donoghue and Tommy Conroy establishing themselves as key figures in the team, while several of the grizzled older core - Keegan, Aidan O'Shea, Kevin McLoughlin - remain about the place.
They were sluggish in the first half of the Connacht final but responded with a magnificent high-octane performance in the second. Their defence was at its combative best while they attacked with their trademark breakneck energy, easily overturning a five point deficit at the break. But for a dubiously disallowed goal finished by O'Donoghue and James Carr's oddly merciful Ray Cummins impression late in the game, they'd have won by a good bit more than six in the end.
Cillian O'Connor's absence is still a sickener as they head into the last four but they haven't appeared too handicapped by it thus far.
Their modern history against Dublin is a source of immense pain and sorrow. It feels a long time since that euphoric and widely-watched pre-2013 final 'Mayo for Sam' video, which included a segment titled 'Keep Calm, It's Only The Dubs', a reflection of the fact that Mayo were coming off a two-game winning streak in the fixture.
Though many are understandably wary of saying it, adopting a "I'll believe when I see it" approach, there are indications that the Dubs are finally weakening.
We know about all their exiles. Jack McCaffrey is still gone, with no sign of a return on the horizon. Paul Mannion, Dublin's most devastating forward in the 2019 second half massacre, has opted out. Kevin McManamon was off in Tokyo working as a sports psychologist and absent all season.
The wider world has given up trying to figure out what's happening with Stephen Cluxton. At 39 years of age, the assumption from many is that he's retired and, somewhat characteristically, opted not to tell the world about it. The Dublin camp are reluctant to acknowledge as much publicly, possibly because they're not sure what's happening themselves, or possibly because doing so would vindicate David Brady.
Their normally stratospheric margin of victory in Leinster championship games was much reduced this year. Only eight in the final against Kildare, just six against Meath in the semi-final, and, remarkably, just eight against Division 4 dwellers Wexford in their first game.
The Leinster final was a complete snore and Dublin were strikingly groggy in the first half - an off-colour Con O'Callaghan dropping a shot from the 21 into the keeper's hands, Dean Rock ballooning a low-percentage shot miles up into the air at one point, Brian Fenton being generally quiet.
In the second half, they did find their groove to some extent, though the viewers weren't exactly salivating over the spectacle. They hand-passed a cagey Kildare team into submission, with Ciaran Kilkenny, hand-passer in chief, coming into his own.
There are no doubt fears in the west that Dublin will rise it in sight of Mayo, re-discovering their old selves. There is a fair degree of contempt between both teams - and both sets of supporters too, most of it coming, strangely enough, from the Dublin side, the side which keeps winning the games.
"Don't let them up the steps!" Jackie Tyrrell was alleged to have said about Galway at half-time in the 2015 hurling final and one senses there's a ferocious amount of 'Don't let them up steps' sentiment in the Dublin dressing room when they come to consider Mayo.
For all that, the evidence of 2021 is that Mayo should never have a better chance of knocking off Dublin than this year.
No team has given the Dubs as much gyp during their imperial phase. If Dublin's historic winning streak does end this weekend, then it would be somewhat fitting - and no doubt immensely satisfying for their supporters - if Mayo were the ones standing over them when it happened.
The only pity for Mayo fans in that scenario is that they'll wake up Sunday morning and realise the job isn't fully done.
RTĖ Sport · RTÉ GAA Podcast: Covid Chaos but there's always Mayo v Dublin
