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Kevin McStay: Mayo must be wary of backdoor perils

We're exactly three months out from the All-Ireland football final.

A lot of water still has to flow under the championship bridge, but the early signs are really good for the defending champions Dublin, while Mayo's fate hangs on who they draw in the qualifiers. 

Just some of the observations from Kevin McStay. 

Speaking on RTÉ Radio's Saturday Sport, the former Roscommon manager also tips Armagh to get to an Ulster final and is not sure why Galway are favourites to win Connacht.

As for the Dubs, well their demolition of Louth showed us that they are in rude health at this early stage.

A point that McStay concurred with.

"Dublin weren't tested, but everything we've seen in the background with Rory O'Carroll back and the way the team are approaching things tells me very little has changed," he said.

"They are in the lead position and it's going to take a huge effort by any of the trailing teams to take them out.

"They are going about their business perfectly and everything they are doing just seems to be improving the situation.

"Meath will face them in the Leinster final and so Meath will end up in Round 4 of the qualifiers."

And then there's Mayo. McStay was back on home turf during the week assessing the mood after the loss to Roscommon.

"I was down home and they were telling me 'we're a Croke Park team, Mayo will trot back to the Super 8'.

"That's fine until you scroll down a bit. What if they get Monaghan (assuming they beat Fermanagh) away in Round 2? And then Donegal in Round 3? Galway in Round 4?

"Then you wouldn't be saying they are trotting back to the Super 8s.

"What that tells us all is that the draw is king when you get to the qualifiers.

"That's the downside of not winning your province. You just don't know where you are going to end up."

Kerry are McStay's number two in the pecking order, interchangeable though with Tyrone.

"Kerry have that full-forward line. Paul Geaney and James Donoghue's form has not been great of late; maybe we are looking at it through the prism of their 'glory days'. They will have to rediscover those glory days when Kerry hit the Super 8s."

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