The story of a game can often be told by drilling down into the restart statistics of both sides and the numbers from last Sunday’s drawn All-Ireland SFC semi-final offer some fascinating insights.
There were a total of 49 kick-outs, with Mayo’s All Star goalkeeper David Clarke kicking off the tee 25 times and Kerry’s Brian Kelly 24.
Mayo retained possession from 16 of their restarts, losing nine. Kerry’s breakdown was 18 wins and six losses so the Kingdom come out on top 75 per cent to 64, but that’s only scratching the surface.
Where were the kick-outs going? Who were they directed at? Who was winning them? And how were they turned over?
Kerry continued to go longer than Mayo from their own kick-outs where possible and they continued to get joy, winning ten of their 12 in the second half.
The Kingdom were hell-bent on forcing Mayo to kick long, which meant pressing high up the field, marking every man they could find in a red and black jersey and leaving Clarke with no option but to aim for the middle of the field.
This is because they knew they were stronger in the air around the central third of the pitch, particularly with the absence of Aidan O’Shea, who was playing at full-back for Mayo marking Kieran Donaghy.
Knowing this, Mayo wanted to keep the ball short from restarts, hitting passes to the wings or between the 13 and 20 metre lines. Another reason Mayo are happy to go short is because they trust their runners to burst holes and set up attacks from deep - something they are probably better at than an other team at the moment.
With what we know already it shouldn’t be hard to work out that Mayo boss Stephen Rochford was happier to see Kerry go short - the best way to ensure that is to flood the middle of the field and encourage Kelly to hit one of his defenders.
The thinking then is to rush up and try to turn them over in the tackle, something Mayo are extremely good at in the opposition half of the field, though they need to brush up on their discipline closer to their own goals.
In the first half Kerry put the squeeze on Mayo and tore them asunder on the restart, winning seven of their 13 kick-outs.
This meant Mayo only retained the ball six times - less than 50 per cent. If that stat continued through the game there’s no way that Mayo could have even gotten away with a draw.
The general consensus that Kerry would have been the happier team to go in level at the break, 1-08 to 2-05, having conceded two goals. But looking at this data Mayo should have been relieved themselves.
Things changed after the break, probably due to the teams tiring.
Kerry continued to go longer than Mayo from their own kick-outs where possible and they continued to get joy, winning ten of their 12.
But at the other end of the field the Kingdom couldn’t get the press on Clarke’s kicks from the tee and this is probably down to them tiring in what was an intense All-Ireland semi-final where the stakes were high.
The majority of Mayo’s kick-outs in the second period were aimed at two clusters towards either wing around the 20 metre line. Kerry didn’t, or perhaps couldn’t, put pressure on them as they tired and the men in black retained possession on nine out of ten occasions they went short.
Keith Higgins in particular was a favoured receiver, taking four balls short, turning and setting up attacks from his own full-back line. Their main ball winner in the middle was Tom Parsons, coming away with the O’Neill’s on two Mayo kick-outs and two of Kerry’s also.
Kerry’s main go-to man on their own restarts was corner-back Killian Young, who picked up five, all of which were well inside his own half.
Both manager, Rochford and Kingdom boss Eamonn Fitzmaurice will have pored over recordings of the game and they will be planning on how to dominate the restart at either end of the field in Saturday’s replay.
Mayo will again want to keep it short at their end and will be happy to allow Kerry to take it inside their own half-back line. By contrast, Kerry will want to make it an aerial battle around the middle of the field.
Whoever can impose their will in this key area will have taken a big step towards the All-Ireland final.
Live coverage of Kerry v Mayo in the All-Ireland SFC semi-final replay on The Saturday Game from 2.15pm on RTÉ One, with live radio commentary on Saturday Sport, RTÉ Radio 1 from 2pm.
Live coverage of Dublin v Tyrone in the All-Ireland SFC semi-final on The Sunday Game from 3.15pm on RTÉ2, with live radio commentary on Saturday Sport, RTÉ Radio 1 from 2pm.
Live blog on the day's football action on RTE Sport Online and the News Now App from 2pm on Saturday and 1pm on Sunday.
Highlights of all the weekend's GAA action on The Sunday Game on RTÉ2 from 9.30pm.
