Nothing surprising here. Dublin v Kerry. Pre-season, scribes and pundits confidently predicted little different.
Of the others, Mayo, most felt, would self-destruct; Donegal’s Ulster campaign would ultimately empty them. Cork and Monaghan were touted as the best of what remained but a final encounter between the League champions and the holders of Sam Maguire always seemed most likely.
Dublin may be marginal favourites with the bookies, but the underdog tag has never sat as comfortably as it does with Kerry at the moment.
Lessons learned by both from their games with Donegal last year about the importance of highly organised defending can inform us what to expect.
Publicly both camps will proclaim confidence with their respective defences but how deep does this really run? Can Éamon Fitzmaurice have absolute belief in a rearguard that conceded five goals in its opening two games in Munster and rode their luck on more than one occasion against Tyrone?
The late distractions with Fermanagh disturbed slightly a Dublin team who had sleepwalked through Leinster. When Mayo cast off the shackles in their drawn semi-final, a sector that hitherto appeared systemically sound betrayed serious shortcomings.
Defenders became panic stricken; restart strategies imploded, yet Dublin somehow survived.
Tricky assignments face both sets of defenders.If they set up conventionally I am not convinced in either side's ability to win their individual battles. The Kerry full-back line will struggle with an in-form Paddy Andrews and Bernard Brogan unless they deploy extra cover.
"I’d anticipate Dublin attempting to crowd the area in front of their D"
I’d guess that Shane Enright will man-mark Andrews but whether or not Mark Ó Sé’s superb football intelligence compensates for his loss of pace remains to be seen.With little other than Aidan O’Mahony and Fionn Fitzgerald on the bench, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Kerry are stretched defensively.
On the other hand, is Jim Gavin confident that Philly McMahon and Johnny Cooper possess the required composure to deal with the threat of James O’Donoghue, Paul Geaney and/or Kieran Donaghy?
If exposed in one-v-one contests I would have my doubts.To deny the Kerry inside line space, I’d anticipate Dublin attempting to crowd the area in front of their ‘D’. Here Cian O’Sullivan’s role is vital. He is an excellent sweeper and leader.
While Dublin will try to maximise the attacking instincts of Jack McCaffrey and James McCarthy, overall I believe both teams will exercise caution and determine to frustrate the supply of ball to their opponents forward lines.
The high-fetching partnership of Anthony Maher and David Moran has excelled for Kerry. Equally Brian Fenton has given Dublin an excellent ball-winning presence in the middle.
His unfussy style suits Dublin’s needs, but choosing his partner presents Jim Gavin with a selection headache. Denis Bastic is broadly similar in style so there may be a temptation to introduce Michael Darragh Macauley from the start.
Dropped for the replay with Mayo, his all-action contribution when introduced from the bench was inspirational.Though it won't sit easy,it’s likely he’ll be held in reserve.
Kerry will work at forcing Stephen Cluxton kick long with his restarts.To achieve this, a well defined strategy must be implemented by the Kerry forwards to close down his short-ranged options.Energy sapping it may well be, but in Johnny Buckley and Donnacha Walsh Kerry have a duo who will provide the lead in this phase of play.
Whereas Ciarán Kilkenny has excelled all season, bigger contributions are needed from his half forward colleagues Paul Flynn and Diarmuid Connolly. This line, replete with talent, has recently operated short of full capacity. Given his current form, Kevin McManamon may start at the expense of Dean Rock up front.
Dredging big performances from their front six is vital for Dublin as, quite simply, their attack is the unit that generates their match-winning tempo.
The conundrum facing Éamonn Fitzmaurice is how he'll use both Kieran Donaghy and Paul Geaney.
Calm, collected and Codyesque, he will choose the combination that best suits the needs of the occasion.
The target man option that Donaghy brings has had limited success while Geaney’s presence provides greater movement and invention.When combined with the magic and instinctive brilliance of Colm Cooper and James O’Donoghue this second option looks more promising.
The Verdict:
The levels of improvement evident in the replayed match with Cork allied to the composure shown in scoring four late winning points against Tyrone in the semi-final restored any wavering faith in the Kingdom.
No one is as adept as Kerry at recognising trouble and adapting to whatever the circumstances demand. The need to avenge defeats at the hands of Dublin in their last two championship meetings, courtesy of late scores, will provide primal motivation.
Though they were my choice at the outset, the insecurities evident at times in recent games has hardened my opinion against Dublin. Provided their half-forward line and midfield can screen a suspect defence and adequately supply their strike force, I expect a narrow Kerry win.
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