Calling a winner in a replay with two very evenly matched teams is fraught with danger.
There are so many variables to contend with before the game itself even takes place, and then as always happens, the game takes on a life of its' own and what we expected to take place is quickly cast on the scrapheap of assumption.
Last year's replay between Kerry and Mayo in Limerick was a perfect case in point.
Mayo were moving fairly well when they were struck a massive blow when two of their best players, Aidan O' Shea and Cillian O’Connor, both had to retire injured due to an accidental collision.
Both subsequently came back on - however O’Shea’s influence in particular was severely curtailed due to what appeared to be some degree of concussion, and O’Connor, last weekend’s man-of-the-match, ended up being red carded by referee Cormac Reilly.
That replay still ended in a draw and Kerry narrowly reached the final on a scoreline of 3-16 to 3-13 after extra-time.
Had the two lads not been injured in that clash, is it reasonable to wonder if Mayo would have beaten Eamonn Fitzmaurice's team?
Imagine for one moment if Mayo were again to lose two such vital players tomorrow or if Ciarán Kilkenny and Bernard Brogan both had to retire due to injury for Dublin. Imagine the implications for either side?
Such random events can make a mockery of our assumptions and predictions.
No-one in Croke Park last Sunday would have given Mayo any chance of getting a draw when they were seven points behind and going into the last ten minutes of the contest.
The reality is that Dublin let last weekend's game slip away from them, just as much as Mayo fought back to earn their draw.
Dublin had a genuine collapse and a systems failure in many sections of the field in those last eight or nine minutes of the game and they actually grabbed a draw, from the jaws of victory.
When they were so far ahead, they should have shown a ruthless streak and closed out the game, and the fact that they did not, may have severe consequences for them on Saturday evening in Croker.
It also gives credence to the view that they can be a bit flaky when they get rattled.
Mayo will take courage from that.
Pat Holmes and Noel Connelly will have learnt an awful lot from last weekend’s game and with Diarmuid Connolly suspended, Dublin will be without one of their top men and key game changers.
His expected absence is really significant and while his team-mates may issue the battle cry - "let's do it for Diarmuid" - before the game, the St Vincent's man is a colossal loss.
Despite being selected on the announced team, it is likely that Donal Vaughan will also be unavailable for Mayo too and his absence would be felt if he is out - however teams can usually find an additional defender or two, whereas top scoring forwards are always in short supply and Connolly on his game, is fundamental to Jim Gavin's cause.
His absence should also allow Lee Keegan make a few more forays into the Dublin defence which will be a plus for a team that struggled so much to get scores from play in the drawn game.
When the gun was put to Mayo’s head last Sunday and they found themselves seven points down, they responded with terrific gusto driven on by the superb Keith Higgins who was the real launch pad for their come-back.
Their team captain was inspirational when he was needed most and he drove hard at the Dublin rear guard with a passion and intensity that stirred his team-mates and supporters into action.
Mayo need to start the game this Saturday as they finished last Sunday's game, and target Stephen Cluxton’s kick-outs from the get-go. They need to be brave, back themselves and take the initiative and then drive at the home team. They must mark the Dublin players, push up fully, with a full-court press and force Cluxton’s kick-outs. Put him under pressure and see how he responds.
They have a superior midfield to Dublin in the likes of Tom Parsons, Seamie O’Shea and Barry Moran and all three are proficient in the air.
Hence they should force the Dublin goalkeeper to kick long and not concede possession as they did so regularly in the drawn game. That is not easy to do and still maintain a sweeper system, however, if they win primary possession off the Dublin kick-out it would give them a huge advantage and a platform to go on and win the game.
You don't need a sweeper when you have the ball.
I would take Mayo to win on Saturday and they seem to have a bit more belief and momentum than Dublin at this stage.
Dublin have an advantage considering that the game is on their doorstep once again.
Mayo are travelling up on Friday evening and have a long day to put in on Saturday until 5pm hanging around a hotel and killing time.
That hanging around most of the day is a real pain and can really eat into your energy levels, especially two weekends in-a-row.
Professional players are more used to that scenario, but that said, Mayo are a tremendously experienced outfit at this stage and their players are well used to having to deal with such issues.
Often a team needs a wee bit of lady luck to get over the winning line. Even when we won the All-Ireland back in 1998 with some exceptional players such as Ja Fallon, Padraig Joyce, Kevin Walsh, Michael Donnellan and Seán Óg De Paor it took a very fortuitous free in the Connacht final in Tuam Stadium that was nailed by Niall Finnegan to get a draw against a very good Roscommon side. And we were lucky in Hyde Park in the replay too, only winning by three points after extra-time.
Mayo have seen plenty of bad luck over the past 20 years and they are due a break.
And I believe if they really go at Dublin, and vary their game between running at the Dublin defence and isolating Aidan O’ Shea on other occasions in the full-forward line, with perhaps Barry Moran thrown in there for a while too, they could very well find themselves back in another All-Ireland decider by 6.30pm on Saturday evening.
Verdict: Mayo
