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Paul Flynn's football championship predictions

Shane Corcoran, left, and Matthew Whittaker of Westmeath after beating Westmeath in 2026 Leinster SFC quarter-final
Westmeath are no longer flying under the radar

After last weekend's championship drama it's hard to imagine this one topping it, but what it does have is more uncertainty.

There's four games, and you can make a case for every team in all of them. The provincial finalists are favourites in three, Monaghan the exception, but none of the challengers will pay much attention to that.

The headline ties are probably Dublin v Louth and Armagh v Derry, but the two that really catch my eye are Westmeath v Cavan and Monaghan v Mayo.

Starting with Westmeath and Cavan, This is all about whether Westmeath can back up a historic Leinster final win. Their season has been built on energy, both in and out of possession. We saw it against Dublin and Kildare, they outlast teams, especially in extra time. The question now is, can they go again?

Westmeath celebrated their Leinster title, as they should have, and the scenes were incredible but even at their best this feels like a 50/50 game. Cavan will bring a new test. They will have a lot of inside knowledge due to Dermot Mc Cabe's season over their rivals.

This is a new Westmeath’s and their capacity home crowd could be a huge lift, but it needs to energise them, not overwhelm them. If the energy dips even slightly or their focus has a homecoming feel, Cavan can take advantage. That might just happen.

In Clones, Monaghan v Mayo is fascinating. Mayo are a bit under the radar now, which is unusual, but that might suit them.

Andy Moran goes back to a county he knows well. He'll be looking for a response from his side, and he needs one.

For me, it starts with the team selection. There’s real promise in the younger players, and this is the time to trust them. If Mayo can limit Monaghan’s two-point threat and bring a bit more ruthlessness to their attack, they’ve every chance.

Kobe McDonald of Mayo celebrates after scoring a point during the Dalata Hotel Group Connacht U20 Football Championship final match between Mayo and Roscommon at Tuam Stadium in Galway.
Kobe McDonald of Mayo

Monaghan showed against Armagh how dangerous they can be, they tend to play in bursts and will get their purple patch so Mayo can’t afford any drop-off like we witnessed in the second half versus Roscommon. I suspect a Mayo backlash could be on the cards.

On Armagh and Derry, I think it comes down to whether Armagh maintain the level they hit in Ulster. All the evidence says they will. Their consistency and scoring power are unrivalled right now, and I don’t see Derry overturning them if Armagh perform to that standard. And Armagh always perform.

With Dublin, it’s really about themselves. They weren’t at their best last time and when they beat Louth earlier in the championships it was a Louth side that underperformed. The Wee County will be gunning for another crack and the Dubs.

Dublin tend to respond to adversity. If they lift their level even slightly, and get some players back on the pitch they should have too much - but they will need to fix their kickout and bring variation there because they were exposed against Westmeath.

Con O'Callaghan returning will give Dublin the energy they need to get over the line. They’d appreciate if they had their manager being back too, especially after Jim Mc Guinness dodging the same fate this week.

The thread running through all of this is that at this stage it’s not just about tactics or match-ups, it’s about your ability to consistently hit your level.

That’s really the challenge for all four favourites this weekend, can they reproduce their best, or even get close to it? Because if they don’t, every one of these challengers is capable of punishing them.

Paul Flynn was speaking on RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland.

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