For Monaghan to bridge that gap, belief cannot be a quiet thing; it has to manifest in a high-risk, high-reward approach. They simply cannot afford to sit back and let Armagh dictate the tempo, but they do have a habit of performing when written off.
If they are to pull off an upset they'll need chaos to play into their hands: the kind of chaotic pattern that got them over the line against Derry. Energy in defence and on kickouts and another masterclass in two-point shooting will be required - and not the passive stand-off performance in the first half that should’ve had Derry out of sight the last day.
Because if they give Armagh that space they will be ruthless. Their high-octane running game, high percentage shot-to-score ratio in attack and evolving kick-out strategies work all point towards a win for the Orchard
They steamrolled Down at times and the return of Ross McQuillan strengthens them even further.
For Armagh, this group crave the Anglo Celt Cup and the pain of previous near-misses might just push them over the line.
Like Armagh, on paper Dublin go into their tie as clear favourites - and the evidence does point to them both coming out on top. But do not write off their opponents.
Westmeath arrive with real momentum: a battling win over Kildare, a classy performance against Meath, and, remarkably, 11 goals in three games. That attacking threat will have Dublin on high alert.
They defend as an aggressive unit and they have big-game players. Ray Connellan, Matthew Whittaker and Brandon Kelly have all shown they can change games, and a potential returning legend in John Heslin only adds to the threat. Westmeath are not coming up to make up the numbers.
When you see a Dublin side missing a few of their key men, you can bet the visitors will smell blood. Will it be enough? Maybe not. Dublin still have a lot of experience which often prove decisive in these games. But their bench looks light.
Their win against Louth by no means signals a return to the top table, far from it, but it will give this group confidence, particularly in some of the new blood, the likes of Charlie McMorrow (above) and Eoin Kennedy from Cuala – unfortunately still no sign of his clubmate Con O'Callaghan.
Stranger things have happened this season, and Westmeath have the weapons and the confidence to cause real Dublin problems.
So, I expect two good contests: the favourites look justified, but both underdogs have the tools and mentality to launch credible ambushes.
Sunday could be comfortable, or it could produce the sort of twists that have defined this crazy season.
Let’s hope it matches the drama of the Connacht final last weekend.
Paul Flynn was speaking on RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland.
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