Like some sort of provincial Keeping up with the Joneses, Ulster had its script looking good well in advance.
Big opener, Tyrone v Armagh, then a wee lull until a massive semi-final between Donegal and Armagh before a final between one of those big guns and a newly energized Derry.
Then, suddenly there was chat about Connacht and even, Lord forbid, Leinster being the big show this year.
Ulster has appeared to respond by tearing the script up and just going full bedlam.
So you think you can dance? Well let’s dance!
Last night’s drama in the Athletic Grounds was as up there with the best. From the moment the Farney army really started to find their voice, the ground and the screens of everyone watching from afar shook as the game convulsed and sparked and in the end exploded.
At this stage we need to all just accept that predictions, even half-time ones, are just sure-fire ways of proving yourself a fool. As we look forward to today's game there is a freedom in accepting that logic has left the building here.
And so to the game - Armagh v Down! We didn’t see that coming.
Donegal’s imperious performance against Kerry and Down’s laboured win over Wexford were in the end only part of the con.
The natural increased focus on Division 1 and 2 teams leave us all open to discounting the performance of teams in the lower levels.
Perhaps Down’s competitive level in the All-Ireland championship in last year’s group stage or the narrow losses of their two previous Ulster championship exits, against Armagh (All-Ireland winners) and Donegal (All-Ireland finalists) should not have been the forgotten bellwethers they were.
The fact they have returning key players rather than the rash of high-profile losses other teams are suffering is also a critical plus point at this time of year.
The questions hanging over today’s fixture are obvious: was Down’s stunning rocket-fuelled performance against Donegal a flash in the pan or something they are capable of repeating? And just where are Armagh at? The answers are much less clear!
To that first one, was Down’s performance against Donegal a flash in the pan?
"Of any team that mightn't be phased by a sudden change in expectation, it's Down, because, deep down, they always view themselves at the top table anyway."
Donegal were below their normal level. That’s the first and often most important part of any underdog victory. The most surprising aspect though wasn’t the drop in Jim McGuinness’ men renowned efficiency, it was Down’s athletic ability.
It’s very rare to look at a Donegal game and feel the opposition are the better conditioned, faster team. Of course, that often is only a reflection of the energy a team is at and the pitch of their performance. But watching back that game in Letterkenny, Down were like gazelles or maybe more apt, hungry young lions.
They were aggressive and direct. We hadn’t seen them play to that level in Division 3, but maybe they didn’t need to? As referenced earlier, their group stage games last year and recent Ulster Championship showings demonstrated their ability to play football with top tier teams.
One thing is for sure, the physical ability to produce the level of speed and relentless energy they showed in Letterkenny isn’t a flash in the pan thing, that is built over many months and years.
Conor Laverty’s much talked of 10-day prep was merely the tool to get the mental engines primed to unleash it all. Can Down play with that same confidence and energy? Can the orchard jerseys produce another reaction in them?
Well yes and yes. Their biggest challenge, is getting down from that emotional pitch in Letterkenny, settled midweek and then returning to it today. Down are the ultimate team, that when the swagger returns, they own it.
Of any team that mightn't be fazed by the sudden change in expectation it’s Down, because deep down, they always view themselves at the top table anyway!
Where are Armagh at?
Armagh were, in a strange way, my team of the league. They were seriously impressive in many aspects of the game. The fact they struggled to pick up points seemed more to do with unfortunate twists and turns than anything systemic.
They were off colour against Tyrone - their 'worst performance of the year’ according to Kieran McGeeney. Still, hard to beat winning when playing poorly.
Against Fermanagh, in contrast to the league, there was significant flaws in the performance that were hidden by the scoreline. In the first half, lowly Fermanagh was at least holding its own in the air and, while guilty of dreadful finishing, carved out good chances easily and repeatedly.
Then, when Darragh McGurn donned his cape in the second half, Armagh were not able to shut him down. Again, it’s tough to play well sometimes when well ahead or when you know you are going to win.
More excusing.
We are now excusing lack of league wins as the performance was good and excusing poor championship performance as the game was won. Hmm.
Then the injuries. There’s bad luck and then shocking bad luck and on that front, McGeeney’s troops have had the latter.
The absence of Ben Crealey and Callum O’Neill compounds the loss of Stefan Campbell, Niall Grimley and Rian O’Neill off the panel this year, on top of reduced roles of Rory Grugan and Barry McCambridge.
Armagh had built one of the strongest panels in the country by the time of their 2024 triumph but that’s a serious hole in terms of experience, size and scoring power.
They are more reliant on their running game but that appears something Down look well suited to attempt to go toe to toe on.
Where are Armagh at? We just don’t really know.
And that’s where we are at. Can Armagh restore a bit of order? Will logic eventually start to apply itself again?
Armagh should win. But it’s impossible to deny there’s something in the air. I say we forget the predictions, grant everyone a fools pardon and just strap in for the ride!
Watch Armagh v Down in the Ulster Football Championship on Sunday from 3.45pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow our live blog on RTÉ.ie/sport and RTÉ News app and listen to Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
