There's a certain contradiction in the fact that the prowess of the two-pointer reduces as the season’s importance increases – so teams have to make hay while the sun doesn’t shine.
The Allianz Football League is four rounds deep and, as is often the case in January and February football, and particularly since the introduction of the FRC rule enhancements, a stiff breeze can be the pre-cursor to a blitzkrieg of long-range scores.
Two-pointers have sharpened the spike of such an assault, and the weekend past provided further evidence that those with the ability to raise orange flags on a regular basis are going to be hard stopped.
Take Sunday’s action for example when six games were won by five points or less.
In five of those, the winning team raised more orange flags than their opponents, with Limerick’s four to Sligo’s one a somewhat bizarre outlier in a three-point defeat for the Treaty County.
Two of those five deserve further examination, the first of which is Louth’s win over Tyrone in one of the performances of the weekend.
With the anemometer rotating in their favour in the first half in Ardee, Louth went hunting for orange flags with Conor Grimes and Dara McDonnell pulling the trigger quickly when presented with a pocket of space outside the arc while Sam Mulroy’s fancy footwork saw him kick over from play having landed four two-point frees against Meath last time out.
Tyrone, with a strong wind in their favour in the second half, didn’t manage a single orange flag.
It’s been an issue for Malachy O’Rourke’s team with six scored across four games, three of those coming from debutant Ethan Jordan in their Round 1 draw with Kildare.
After starting against Derry, Jordan was a 67th-minute sub against Cavan and a 55th-minute sub against Louth. In those other fixtures, the entire side only managed three more between them. All of a sudden, Tailteann Cup football cannot be ruled out in a unforgiving second tier, even if it remains improbable despite clashes to come with the current top two, Cork and Meath.
The second match worth examining is Donegal’s 1-20 to 0-19 win over Armagh, a game that further enhances the Orchard County’s reputation as a scoring anomaly this season.
After four games, they have scored as much – 93 points all in – as the Division 1 table-topping, 100% record-holding Tir Chonaill County. Indeed, across all four divisions, only Mayo (98), Roscommon (97), Down (96) and Cork (94) have scored more than Kieran McGeeney’s side.
In the opening four rounds, Mayo have have scored 14 two-pointers, Donegal 12, Roscommon and Down 11 and Cork 10.
Armagh have five. Four of those came in one half of football against the Rossies.
The retirement of Stefan Campbell, the non-involvement of Rian O’Neill and Niall Grimley this year, Rory Grugan’s extended break and Ethan Rafferty losing his place means that the side’s two-point threat was scythed into pieces in a matter of weeks – but there are still enough players there to suggest they should be doing better. Even a slight improvement and their league season could be looking a lot different than the relegation battle it has become.
McGeeney’s more pressing concern may be around goals, and his side’s inability to take their chances.
One from four games suggests it’s not in their arsenal, but the eye-test is different.
Oisín Conaty missed a host of chances against Donegal – penalty included – while they butchered a simple slap-in against Roscommon not long after Ross McQuillan had a green flag erased due to a breach. Chances against Galway and Monaghan were missed too.
Much was made - far too much - of their decision to fist over repeatedly against Galway. Jason Duffy’s decision to do so late on was a big error, but those are the consequences of miscalculating risk and reward.
Ironically, if they’d fisted a few efforts over against Roscommon instead of going for goals they very well may have taken something from the game.
It’s clear though that Armagh’s balance regarding scoring returns is off with 80 of their 93 points coming from the old traditional one-point method; something that makes their scoring return all the more remarkable. As one RTÉ colleague remarked, "they’re taking no shortcuts."
Like 'piggery’, expect ‘balance’ to be more prominent in the GAA lexicon as teams move past the Year 1 road test of the enhancements.
Without question, in Division 1 Donegal are the only side that seem to have figured out some semblance of it in both attack and defence when playing with or against the wind, and how teams adapt further to the orange flag in particular could – should, in fact - be the story of the summer.
While not a mirror image, it’s hard not to be drawn once again into comparisons with basketball.
Pre-FRC, and with the game in the doldrums, the taunt of "it’s like watching basketball" was often spoken with derision. Post-FRC, and with the game resuscitated, the comparison with the courts remain.
An analytical study in 2023 sifted through the two and three-point shooting numbers in the NBA over 40 seasons.
In 1979, when the three-point line was first established in the NBA, the average number of three-point attempts sat at 2.8 per game. In the 2018/19 season, it broke through the 30 attempts per game barrier.
Efficiency has also steadily increased over time, something we may see in football too as the years pass.
The NBA doesn’t have to deal with the bone-chilling winds that can sweep off the Atlantic coast, so other factors will dictate to an extent, and counties – the majority anyway – haven't yet settled on the formula to help prevent these two-point raids, so it won’t be a like for like.
But it’s clear to see, goals win games and two-pointers do now as well – until the sun comes out at least.
Watch Kildare v Meath in the Allianz Football League on Saturday from 6.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on the RTÉ News App and on rte.ie/sport. Listen to Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
Watch Allianz League Sunday from 9.35pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on all matches on the RTÉ News App and on rte.ie/sport. Listen to Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
