For many reasons, predicting which of the big hitters in Division 1 will emerge as winners – or reach the final at least – is fraught with danger.
The extent to which managers blood new talent (for Ger Brennan, Mark Dowd and Andy Moran in their first years in charge respectively, this is especially relevant), the gap to the championship opener, training programmes plus whether the schedule is more heavily weighted to home or away fixtures over the seven rounds, all plays into the mix.
Of course such matters occur across the four divisions, yet the element of shadow-boxing with early Sam Maguire ambitions on display brings a sharper focus to Division 1.
Yet if gazing into the crystal ball for those with grand ambitions, the picture at the other end of the table could be less muddied.
In 2024, Monaghan and Roscommon won a single game a piece (the Farney men left Dublin in their opening fixture with two points, while the Rossies claimed their only win against Monaghan) as they suffered relegation.
They kept company in bouncing right back, the Ulster team taking the bragging rights in the Division 2 decider, and the bookies are strongly of the opinion that both are heading right back where they came from.
Both counties have four home ties which should help matters, with the Farney men travelling to Dr Hyde Park in round two.
Dublin and Donegal meet in round one at Croke Park, two counties very much at different stages of their development.
Jim McGuinness decided that a league final in 2025, ahead of a punishing championship schedule, was best avoided, so the handbrake was pulled last year with the showpiece in sight.
It appeared a wise decision as Ulster was annexed, but they had no answer – certainly not in a tactical sense – to thwart Kerry in the decider. A fresh face or two would be welcomed, but a fully fit Donegal squad is a formidable one as they look to the bigger prize.
The Dubs on the other hand are leaving no stone unturned to unearth new talent, with Ger Brennan casting the net as wide as possible.
The likes of Killian McGinnis, Theo Clancy (above) and Brian O'Leary became part of the first-team picture in 2025, but Brennan comes in with a clean slate.
A goalkeeper and centre-back are required given Stephen Cluxton’s move into the backroom team and John Small’s retirement, while a settled midfield and more competition in the half-forward line would be a spring bonus.
The aforementioned Roscommon are joined by Connacht rivals Mayo and Galway.
Since promotion back to the top-flight in 2022, Galway have been solid if not spectacular. From 21 games, Joyce’s side have won nine and lost seven, plus a Division 1 final defeat three years ago to the Green and Red.
The Tribesmen were running on fumes by the end of their championship run last year, so adding more depth in the early part of the year is key to any loftier ambitions this summer.
With that in mind, California-bound Matthew Thompson will be a huge loss.
Andy Moran on the other hand has cajoled back Cillian O’Connor, Robbie Hennelly and James Carr back into the fold.
AFL-bound Kobe McDonald, the most talked about teenager arguably since Davd Clifford, is in with the panel, but with the small matter of the Leaving Cert to contend with before departing for Australia in the summer, it’s hard to know whether Mayo supporters will get to see the gifted teenager before heading off for a professional career Down Under.
Moran will certainly bring renewed energy after the Kevin McStay era tapered off, with a sizeable crowd expected for their first home outing when they welcome the Dubs to Castlebar in round two.
Holders Kerry have treated the competition with as much respect as anyone in the last few years. Since 2022 they have finished as winners twice, winning 19 of their 30 games (including both finals).
Jack O’Connor won’t lose much sleep if his side give up their crown, but Kingdom fans of a superstitious disposition will note that all five of Kerry’s All-Ireland titles under O’Connor’s stewardship have come on the back of springtime league success.
Armagh complete the lineup and are perhaps the most curious case in Division 1.
After spectacularly upsetting the odds to claim Sam Maguire in 2024, Armagh began 2025 with a league campaign that was just about good enough to stay up before again experiencing Ulster final heartache. After laying down a serious marker against Dublin in the All-Ireland series, a 15-minute Kerry blitz put paid to back-to-back ambitions in a bewildering quarter-final.
Kieran McGeeney goes again, but has the team peaked under his stewardship or can he raise another gallop? The league campaign may not shed serious light, though a difficult campaign, or indeed relegation, could spell trouble ahead of a date with Tyrone in the Ulster preliminary.
Armagh
2025 league: Sixth in Division 1
2025 championship: Ulster final defeat to Donegal, All-Ireland quarter-final defeat to Kerry
2026 championship: Ulster preliminary quarter-final v Tyrone
Manager: Kieran McGeeney (12th year in charge)
Captain: Aidan Forker
Squad news: It appears that Rian O'Neill won't feature for 2026, while Stefan Campbell, Niall Grimley, Jemar Hall and Ciaron O'Hanlon have all stepped away. O'Neill's younger brother Aaron will hope to make an impact.
Prospects: Armagh's Dr McKenna Cup ended when, despite getting the better of Down, the match was awarded to the Mourne men for an Armagh breach of competition regulations. The start of their schedule - away matches against Monaghan and Roscommon sandwiched by a home tie with Galway - could allow the Orchard County get points on the board early. Anything after that would be bonus territory. Should they have designs on getting another run out at Croke Park early doors, the two-week gap between the Ulster preliminary clash with Tyrone and the league final makes it a realistic possibility.
League prediction: 4th
Donegal
2025 league: Fourth in Division 1
2025 championship: Ulster champions, All-Ireland final defeat to Kerry
2026 championship: Ulster quarter-final v Down
Manager: Jim McGuinness (Third year in charge, second stint)
Captain: TBC
Squad news: The retired Paddy McBrearty leaves a sizeable void in the panel, though it appears that All-Star and talisman Michael Murphy has no intentions of hanging up the inter-county boots for a second time just yet.
Prospects: The league has never held a special place in Jim McGuinness' heart, more often a means to an end. He was unimpressed that the Division 1 final last year came a week before their Ulster joust with Derry, so with the Tir Chonaill men performing well in the early rounds, a fixture headache came into view. Having beaten Kerry, Dublin and Armagh, McGuinness said ahead of the Galway fixture in round 4 that "we will not be thinking about the league final". They duly lost three of their final four games.
This time around an extended league campaign might suit. Should they fail to make the divisional decider, it's a five-week break to the Ulster quarter-final with Down. A foreign training camp could be pencilled in, but expect stronger motivation to make a league final.
League prediction: 3rd
Dublin
2025 league: Fifth in Division 1
2025 championship: All-Ireland quarter-final defeat to Tyrone
2026 championship: Ulster preliminary quarter-final v Tyrone
Manager: Ger Brennan (first year in charge)
Captain: TBC
Squad news: Stephen Cluxton, while not confirming his retirement, "100%" won't be playing according to Brennan as he is now part of the backroom team. The loss of John Small removes the lynchpin of their defence for the last decade.
Prospects: Much has been made of Brennan’s desire to cast an eye over the playing talent, from senior down to the junior grades. Aside from Niall O’Callaghan, brother of Con, the team sheets for the O’Byrne Cup contained largely unfamiliar names to those outside of Dublin circles.
League prediction: 6th
Galway
2025 league: Third in Division 1
2025 championship: Connacht champions, All-Ireland quarter-final defeat to Meath
2026 championship: Connacht semi-final v Leitrim/Sligo
Manager: Paraic Joyce (seventh year in charge)
Captain: John Maher
Squad news: Matthew Thompson, one of Galway's best performers last year, will be away from the action until May as he is on Erasmus at the University of California in Berkeley. Gone for the entirety of the season are Thompson's Salthill team-mate Tomo Culhane and veteran wing-forward Johnny Heaney, both of whom have opted out for 2026.
Prospects: A championship exit at the hands of Meath was not part of last year's script, the Royals putting paid to a second successive semi-final clash for the Tribesmen with Donegal. Fitness concerns seemed to plague Joyce throughout the championship, best summed up by Shane Walsh's majestic 1-07 against Down in the preliminary quarter-final victory before being forced off by half-time.
In the defeat to the Royals, the bench included Paul Conroy, Damien Comer and Cillian McDaid. Galway will hope to add more playing options for championship, with a bit more pace around the middle third an area worth addressing. Joyce knows more than anyone that with clean bill of health his team are very much in the silverware conversation.
League prediction: 2nd
Kerry
2025 league: Division 1 champions
2025 championship: Munster champions, All-Ireland champions
2026 championship: Munster semi-final v Clare
Manager: Jack O’Connor (Fifth year in charge, third stint)
Captain: Paul Geaney
Squad news: Few comings and goings from the panel that swept all before them in 2025, with the biggest talking point around the addition of Kieran Donaghy to Jack O'Connor's backroom team.
Prospects: In the pantheon of managers who excel at downplaying performances, Jack O'Connor can hold his own with the best of them. "I wouldn't get carried away with today, I think you’d be maybe giving us six out ten maximum," he said in the aftermath of last year's league success.
In truth, very few ever get carried away with spring performances, publicly at least, but O'Connor has always recognised the benefit of a positive league campaign. The extra week and game should they reach the final would be a boon given their Munster semi-final with Clare is four weeks later.
League prediction: Champions
Mayo
2025 league: Division 1 runners-up
2025 championship: Connacht final defeat, All-Ireland series exit
2026 championship: Connacht quarter-final v London
Manager: Andy Moran (First year in charge)
Captain: Jack Coyne
Squad news: The new man in charge has already coaxed all-time top scorer Cillian O'Connor, long-serving goalkeeper Robbie Hennelly and forward James Carr back, while the presence of Paddy Tally in the backroom team is likely to add a bit more to their defensive set-up.
Teenage sensation Kobe McDonald is in with the panel before he departs for an AFL career in the summer, but how much game time he will put down with Mayo remains to be seen.
Prospects: Mayo's last two championship exits have left supporters somewhat deflated and a sense that they have lost ground on the chasing pack. Moran's arrival is an immediate shot in the arm, not to mention bringing back some crowd favourites.
Perhaps a couple of more big home games (Dublin in round two is the pick of the lot) would have helped build up momentum ahead of championship, especially from the supporters' perspective, but Moran may feel deeper lessons will be learned on the road where trips to Salthill, Letterkenny and Tralee await.
League prediction: 5th
Monaghan
2025 league: Promoted as Division 2 champions
2025 championship: Ulster quarter-final defeat v Donegal, All-Ireland quarter-final defeat v Donegal
2026 championship: Ulster quarter-final v Cavan
Manager: Gabriel Bannigan (Second year in charge)
Captain: Mícheál Bannigan
Squad news: Gabriel Bannigan must make do without a raft of experienced players after Darren Hughes, Karl O’Connell and Kieran Duffy announced their retirements. Karl Gallagher is back in the fold though after his time with the Adelaide Crows came to an end. Ciarán McNulty is going the other way though as he is off to Australia on his travels.
Prospects: The Farney men will be sick of the sight of Donegal after Ulster and All-Ireland quarter-final defeats in 2025. Their final group game is at home to the Tir Chonaill men. The round two clash away to fellow promoted side Roscommon has a significant look to it, while their subsequent away assignments will take them to Croke Park and Killarney. With home advantage against Armagh (round 1), Mayo, Galway and Donegal, Bannigan's men are likely to need a couple of wins there to ensure they avoid a swift return to Division 2.
League prediction: 8th
Roscommon
2025 league: Promoted as Division 2 runners-up
2025 championship: Connacht semi-final defeat v Galway, All-Ireland series exit
2026 championship: Connacht quarter-final v New York
Manager: Mark Dowd (First year in charge)
Captain: Brian Stack
Squad news: Roscommon will be shorn some of their finest servants with Ciaráin Murtagh, Donie Smith and Niall Daly calling time on their careers with the county. On the flip side Eoin McCormack is back after sitting out the 2025 season. Notable also is the addition of former Dublin player and selector Jason Sherlock to the backroom team.
Prospects: The Rossies will be desperate to shake their yo-yo reputation as Mark Dowd looks to put a stamp on things. That task may prove trickier with St Brigid's run to an All-Ireland final, and when the likes of Brian Stack, Eddie Nolan, Ben O'Carroll, Shane Cunnane and Conor Hand are back in the blue and yellow could go a long way to determining their Division 1 fate. A trip to Killarney is a daunting opening assignment, though the fact two of their final three games are at home could prove crucial.
League prediction: 7th
