There's one common trend in all seven of Kerry's championship defeats stretching back to the 2019 All-Ireland final reply against Dublin - David Clifford did not score a goal in any of them.
For Donegal to repeat the feat this afternoon would be quite the achievement - he's already scored eight in as many matches this summer. That is more than any other footballer in the 2025 All-Ireland championship. In fact, it's over half of Kerry's total and only three other teams - Galway (17), Donegal (13), and Louth (12) - have scored more goals than he has single handedly.
The five-time All Star however could've scored even more - having missed six of his total 14 goal opportunities across those games, while he provided the final pass for a further two chances. The 26-year-old has either taken on the shot or given the final pass for over a third of Kerry's goal chances en route to this afternoon's decider in Croke Park (35%).
In those seven Kerry defeats over eight seasons, they've scored just two goals and failed to raise a green flag in five of the seven losses. Over the past 20 years of All-Ireland football finals, the winners have scored a combined 27 goals and the beaten finalists a collective 13. On the biggest day of the year, goals definitely matter.
Kerry are averaging almost six clear goal chances a game in reaching this afternoon's All-Ireland decider against Donegal. They have scored 15 goals in eight matches and including the league, they have 32 goals so far in 2025.
That means they are averaging two goals per game while scoring three or more goals in seven of their 16 matches.
All that said, Kerry come into this final knowing that they will need to improve in front of goal if they are to beat Jim McGuinness' team. Of their last 23 goal scoring chances across the preliminary quarter-final win over Cavan, against reigning champions Armagh and then Tyrone in the semi-final, the Kingdom have raised just four green flags.
Over the entire championship, Jack O'Connor's team have been in for 46 goal scoring opportunities and have converted 33% of them - a conversion rate of just under a third.
Kerry continually create goal chances, but they waste two-thirds of them
Clifford's goalscoring efficiency is 57%, which as much as anything highlights his relentless hunger for goals and commitment to shooting for them. Something his teammates back him entirely on - he's had a different player assist him for each of his goals.
No player has created more goal chances for him than Seán O'Shea with three. The Kenmare Shamrocks forward has provided the final pass for more goal opportunities than any other Kerry player, while his own four attempts at goal mean he has been directly involved in 12 goal scoring chances. Only David Clifford, with 14, has been involved in more.
Dynamic Kerry midfielder Joe O'Connor has been in sensational form this season and has had six goal attempts and set up another four. Dylan Geaney has showcased a range of impressive kick-passes to create opportunities for his fellow forwards and he's been involved in 10 chances in total. Paudie Clifford has created six chances and had two attempts of his own, despite missing a number of games with injury.
The source of Kerry's goals has been mixed, with over half of the respective chances coming from kickouts - 13 from Kerry's own restarts and 12 from securing possession under the opposition kickout. While 35% came via a turnover - six of which being an attacking turnover. Four of the 46 began with a dropped shot from the opposition.
While Kerry's goal threat is clear, and the significance of David Clifford within that even more so - the Kingdom did manage to dethrone the All-Ireland champions Armagh without Clifford or co. finding the back of the net.
However, with their talisman getting extra attention and the goals closed off - the league and Munster champions instead had eight attempts at two pointers. Scoring five. With Clifford scoring three, and laying off three. Two of them to O'Shea.
Against Meath when they mustered just two goal attempts in a shock group stage defeat, they were also unable to find their range from distance with Clifford sending over their one and only two-pointer. In the other six championship defeats Kerry have had since the 2019 final, there was no two-point option when the goals had dried up.
Kerry were lacking any cutting edge in the loss to Meath
In reaching the final Kerry have shot for two-pointers from play on 33 occasions, or four times per game, raising an orange flag 48% of the time (16 scores). When including nine of 13 converted two-point frees, that conversion rate rises to 54%.
David Clifford and Sean O'Shea alone have scored 14 of their team's 16 two-pointers from play, from a combined 24 attempts. Of those, 15 were via Clifford, who scored nine (0-18), while O'Shea has slotted five of nine attempts. When it comes to frees, he has six from six whereas Clifford has two from five. Overall, Clifford has a 55% scoring rate from outside the arc, whereas O'Shea is at 73%.
Three of O'Shea's two-pointer efforts from play were assisted by Clifford who gave the final pass for four two-point attempts in all - the one miss in that lot coming from Dylan Geaney. No Kerry player has assisted more two-pointer shots thus far in the championship than their go-to scorer.
Aside from O'Shea and Clifford only Tony Brosnan and Tom O'Sullivan have scored a two-pointer from play for Kerry in the 2025 championship, and other than a Shane Ryan free, Dylan, Conor and Paul Geaney are the only other players to have even attempted a two-pointer.
Tom O'Sullivan is just one of four Kerry players to have raised an orange flag from play
On the defensive side of things, Kerry have conceded just four goals in their eight championship matches, and 10 in 16 across both competitions. Keeping a clean sheet in half of those matches.
Those four goals are the end product of 33 opposition goal chances though as Kerry have progressed to the final. Fourteen of those 33 chances were saved by Shane Ryan or Shane Murphy between the posts. Ultimately Kerry have denied their opposition a goal 88% of the time they've got in for a chance, through both sharp goalkeeping and an excellent scramble defence.
While Donegal will back themselves to improve on those odds - stopping David Clifford at the other end of the field will be front and centre of their minds.
He has scored the most goals, been directly involved in the most goalscoring chances, scored the most two-pointers, and assisted more of them than anyone else in this Kerry team.
The knock-on effects of how Donegal look to contain him will be fascinating viewing.
Watch the All-Ireland Football Championship final, Donegal v Kerry, on Sunday from 2.15pm on RTÉ One and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app. Listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1. Watch highlights on The Sunday Game from 9.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player
