The preliminary quarter-final draw didn't exactly set the pulses racing at first glance. But when you step back and look at how the past five weeks have gone, the trend is that the gap between teams is tightening.
Every week we’ve had surprises – Meath turning over Kerry, Cavan beating Mayo – and now we’re into knockout football where anything can happen.
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This weekend, we’ve four games, win or bust. So while it’s tempting to call them straightforward, you’d be brave to rule out another upset. The two games where an unlikely upset could occur are Cork catching Dublin cold, or Down continuing their momentum and out-running a stuttering Galway side.
Starting with Dublin v Cork. If Cork are to cause a shock, they'll need to match – or surpass – the intensity they showed against Kerry in Munster. That raw edge, physicality, and relentless running game can trouble Dublin. And crucially, they have leaders in the middle third – the likes of Ian Maguire and Colm O'Callaghan– can stand toe-to-toe with Brian Howard and Peadar Ó Cofaigh Byrne.
But Cork’s chances hinge on one thing: scoring. Brian Hurley, Chris Óg Jones, and Mark Cronin are dangerous, but they all need to hit form at the same time. Add to that an off-colour Dublin and you’ve got the ingredients for a potential upset - but it’s still a big ask and while it could be tighter than people imagine, Dublin should prevail to the quarter-final.
Then there's Down v Galway. Down are coming in to this game confident after a solid group stage. Their press when out of possession has been impressive throughout, their energy relentless with the ball, and they are clinical in front of goal. If they bring that again – particularly at home in Páirc Esler – they can challenge Galway.
The worry for Down is at the back. If they offer Galway the same space Monaghan got, they will get punished. But Galway haven't exactly lit it up recently. The question is – does the pressure of knockout football bring the best out of last year's All Ireland runners up?
If it does, which I suspect it will, they should have enough, especially with the class they have throughout their squad. But if they’re even slightly off, Down will be waiting to punish them.
In the other two games, it's hard to see upsets. Kerry at home should be too strong for Cavan, and Donegal should have too much for Louth in Ballybofey, although it won't be without a Louth fight.
In the Tailteann Cup semi-finals, Fermanagh v Kildare is a fascinating one. Fermanagh, come in off a big win over Sligo and won't fear anyone left in this competition.
There’s firepower on both sides. Kildare handed Fermanagh a wake-up call back in January, so that won’t have been forgotten. But if Kildare play to their potential, they should make the final.
The other tie between Wicklow and Limerick could be the tightest game of the weekend. They drew in the league and there is not much between the two teams. Wicklow will need that full team effort for the whole 70 minutes like what they showed in the latter stage of the Westmeath game.
Dean Healy and Mark Jackson, their leaders, are going to have to step up.
Limerick have been building nicely and that win over Wexford in the league [Division 4] final will certainly give them confidence going into this game. I think the star quality of James Naughton for Limerick will tip it in their favour but it's going to be a really, really tight tie.
Paul Flynn was speaking on Morning Ireland.
Follow a live blog on the All-Ireland Football Championship on Saturday and Sunday on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app. Listen to updates on Saturday Sport and Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1. Watch highlights on The Saturday Game at 9.15pm and The Sunday Game from 9.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player.
Watch the Tailteann Cup semi-finals, Wicklow v Limerick and Fermanagh v Kildare, on Sunday from 1.30pm. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app. Listen to updates on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1. Watch highlights on The Sunday Game at 9.30pm.
