Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events is one of the various shows that held the attention of the McGinley brood for a while.
In it a young family of brilliant children face a seemingly never-ending run of calamitous events making their situation ever grimmer. At this stage Paddy Tally could offer his services to the writing team should they start to run out of ideas.
Derry’s well documented difficulties regarding their managerial appointment meant that Tally was one of the last men into an inter-county hot seat in the country. A late start in the year that has seen the biggest change in the game was a hugely difficult situation to arrive into. He then had to accept the first retirements in several years from the core group of Derry players behind their meteoric rise through the divisions.
The loss of Chrissy McKaigue and Benny Heron would’ve seemed a manageable loss but the impact has only increased over the spring. As the games commenced, Derry were right there. Out of the first three games they deserved at least one, maybe two wins.
Nothing fell their way and the gradually increasing injury list added to the sense of misfortune. Any squad will run at about 10-15% injury rate. Take a squad of 36, 3-6 injuries would be an expected norm. All the best sports science and injury prevention work in the world can never negate this.
At best you can decrease it by a third, but injuries will still occur. When they do, it is the who and when that let you know whether your luck is in or not. Avoid key players and, especially, avoid a build-up coming into a big game.
Conor McCluskey, Brendan Rodgers, Ciaran McFaul, Gareth McKinless, Odhran Lynch, Anton Tohill, Niall Loughlin and Lachlan Murray, i.e. several all-stars and the rest key players that would’ve seen game time this weekend. Yep, even Lemony Snicket script writers would be thinking we need to throw the old dog a bone here.
Much has been made of how tight Rory Gallagher ran his squad during their stunning rise. While they likely had everything right on the injury prevention front they still had a degree of luck to have the injury count they did.
Inevitably over several years these things tend to level out and Derry are possibly facing a natural evening up of the injury odds. Much is made of the need to establish squad depth, it is essential for a sustained push. One off break-out runs might be pulled off with a lean squad but persistent year on year time at the top needs the sort of numbers that last year’s All-Ireland finalists, Armagh and Galway, exhibited better than anyone.
Derry have improved their depth over the past two years but not to the extent they can withstand the current perfect injury storm.
The Oak Leaf’s opponents today, are being talked up as not just All-Ireland contenders but even favourites in some people’s eyes. Now, while it’s a fool’s errand to ever presume named teams will start, taking things at face value, the Donegal bench tells us much.
Firstly, with Paddy McBrearty, Oisin Gallen, Michael Murphy, Jason McGee, Odhran McFaden-Ferry and Jeaic MacCeallabhuí all in the big numbers, the depth question box gets a definite tick.
Secondly, Donegal know, with Derry’s form line and injury list, they are in the driving seat here. Put it like this, if this was an All-Ireland semi, I don’t believe we would be seeing that list of players on the bench. McGuinness is clearly keeping an eye on the bigger story arc he is hoping to tell this summer.
Rumoured early training or not, Donegal were out of the traps like a shot in the early rounds. Hungry, high energy and playing clean, simple football, they accounted for the last three All-Ireland champions in a flawless opening stanza. This allowed them to take the foot of the gas and likely top up their training reserves while prioritizing ideal game time loads to allow as many of their panel reach good form without any unnecessary injury risk.
Now we will see if they can switch their early form back on. That’s usually a no go but whatever way I look at tomorrow’s game it’s hard to see anything other than a win for the Tir Chonnail men.
Derry’s named team is not as weak as feared with Rodgers, McFaul and Murray welcome returns to the first 15, but valid questions regarding their respective fitness will follow them through tomorrow’s game. Are they fully fit or is Tally having to gamble?
Without Gallen and McBrearty in Donegal’s inside line, Derry’s challenge more clearly revolves around attempting to stop Donegal’s running game. As stunning as Paudie Clifford’s form was in the league, the collective pace and sharpness of Donegal’s counter attacks were equal in their representation of the new game at its best. It feels like a challenge beyond Derry just at present.
Foregone conclusion? No. Likely Donegal win? Yes.
There is definitely a risk of Derry suffering a damaging defeat. They undoubtedly have their backs to the wall. They wouldn’t be the first team to use such to galvanise the squad and produce an against the odds performance.
If they do, the rarest of things might occur. An Ulster Championship match where both teams emerge in a better place.
Donegal will march on but Derry might just show the first shoots of a summer revival and signal the end of their series of unfortunate events.
Watch Donegal v Derry in the Ulster Football Championship on Sunday from 1.15pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio1
Watch The Sunday Game from 9.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on all matches on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app. Listen to updates from around the country on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1.
