It was the mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz who came up with the scientific revolution called 'chaos theory'.
In essence, it describes how small changes in the natural world can lead to significant consequences. Lorenzo's study came to be more commonly known as the 'butterfly effect' after he suggested that the flap of a butterfly's wings might ultimately cause a tornado. Extreme, indeed!
A more benign view of said suggestion was in evidence across a number of games on the concluding day of action in the Allianz Football League. A score here and a score there; a missed chance in Castlebar or in Cavan would alter the landscape upon which the promotion/relegation story would unfold.
Omagh, Salthill, Newbridge, Ennis, Inniskeen and Enniskillen also played witness to twists and turns. In real time, positions across the divisional tables kept changing; countless butterflies were flapping their wings.
In Division 3, as Kildare were losing to Antrim and Fermanagh had the lead over Laois, it was the Ernesiders who jumped ahead of the Lilies in the promotion race. After being awarded the points following Leitrim's forfeit a week earlier, there no doubt would have been an uproar of sorts had Fermanagh risen. Kildare eventually stirred themselves, taking care of business and with it, that promotion ticket.
Dara McVeety's two-point effort trailed just wide as the hooter sounded at Breffni Park. Cavan's chance to draw their match was spurned as parity would have taken them to Division 1. McVeety, possibly thinking time was running out as was the case prior to the rule tweaks which came in after round five, shot on sight from the wing. He need not have rushed it. A levelling score and Roscommon would have missed out on a top-flight return.
And what of Division 1? Amid the scenario of teams not wanting to make a final, with Ciarán Whelan lamenting a lack of intensity on the final day, there was still much toing and froing. Most of it played out at Elverys MacHale Park, where Donegal, well placed to make a league final, started well against Mayo. The Green and Red could also make a decider but also had an eye on what was behind them. McStay's men in time then found their groove.
Over in Salthill, Kerry began slowly but soon warmed to the task. They established a lead they would not relinquish and aided by some timid defending from Galway cruised home. Up in Omagh, Tyrone, second from bottom before the throw-in, proved too good for a Dublin side who again would not offer much resistance on their travels to the province of Ulster. Back to MacHale Park and Mayo and Donegal both had moments of ascendancy. McGuinness' men then had a chance to retake the lead when awarded a penalty.
The toing and froing elsewhere was now not as pronounced and Mayo knew defeat would see them relegated. Daire Ó Baoill's spot kick was saved. Moments later, Hugh McFadden saw his goalbound effort smack off the crossbar. The hosts survived. At one stage during the afternoon they were facing the drop. A quarter of an hour later, they were topping the standings and heading for a league final. Joining them would be Kerry, who also rose high enough, leapfrogging others who looked better placed to get another day out.
Of course, did they want another day out? And that brings us on to that mindset of not wanting to reach a Division 1 final and issues around the calendar. I don't want to thrash out those concerns here, only to say that we could see a two-week gap between conclusion of the league and and the start of the championship in 2026. That's the anticipation and that was the case in the first year of the split season in 2022.
Back to last Sunday and approaching 5.30pm all the flapping ceased. The final standings in Division 1 had a look we didn't expect with regard to positions 1 and 2.
"There's very little room to breathe now" - managers of the Allianz League football finalists, Kerry's Jack O'Connor and Mayo's Kevin McStay, on a condensed #GAA calendar @MartyMofficial pic.twitter.com/aWw6qBY0lS
— RTÉ GAA (@RTEgaa) March 25, 2025
Kerry and Mayo, it would seem, are happy enough to head to Croke Park for a clash that, let's be honest about it, won't define their year. "It's not the be-all and end-all who wins it. It’s just an extra game, which is great, and it shortens the span," Jack O'Connor remarked, when speaking to reporters in Salthill.
That said, Jack subsequently told RTÉ Sport: "In Kerry, you have to try and go for every competition that you're in, nothing less is excepted. We'll be going hard at it, the handbrake won't be on."
O'Connor's side aren't in championship action until 19 April, while Mayo are out sooner, on Sunday week, to face Sligo in the Connacht quarter-final.
They both finished the league strongly, with the Kingdom kicking a combined 45 points against Armagh and Galway, a tally that included no two-pointers. David Clifford is back scoring for fun, but the contribution of Paul Geaney and Dylan Geaney in the inside forward line has so far being telling.
Paul, at 34, is playing the best footballer of his career, the league's standout performer, allowed even greater expression by way of the new rules. As well as Kerry's kicking prowess, observers will also have taken note of how quickly they are distributing the ball by hand, cutting down the time it takes to size up a scoring opportunity.
We wondered about Mayo's wellbeing after Galway led them a merry dance of sorts in early February - all this after rumblings of discontent last autumn over Kevin McStay's position. A county board review on what was a mixed 2024 for the squad was carried out. The review concluded that McStay would oversee a third year at the helm. And then Cillian O'Connor, Pádraig O'Hora, Michael Plunkett, James Carr and Rory Byrne stepped away from the panel.
A scrappy win against Tyrone was the lift-off Mayo needed. A stirring comeback against Armagh saw them salvage a point, before victories over Kerry, Derry and Donegal has them feeling good about themselves again.
Mattie Ruane and Ryan O'Donoghue carry the substantial scoring threat, while Aidan O'Shea's presence, allied with his eye for a two-pointer when it's required, have combined to aid Mayo's cause where Jack Carney, David McBrien, Davitt Neary and Frank Irwin have also shone.
Going back to the chaos theory, things may not be as topsy-turvy when the All-Ireland group phase concludes in June. Only four of the 16 teams will be eliminated at that stage, with any madness on the final day mainly confined to who ends up in a preliminary quarter-final. That was Mayo's destination last year after failing to keep a lead at the death against Dublin. A month before that they allowed Galway eke out victory in the Connacht final. Needless to say they could do with the afterglow of edging out a big gun in summer time.
In 2024, Kerry just weren't, well let's just say, weren't themselves. Jack O'Connor spoke about the impact of the Armagh crowd late on in the All-Ireland semi-final, commenting it was hard to "arrest the momentum" when the Orchard struck for a late goal. Kerry of old may have blocked out the din emanating from that sea of orange. In what is likely to be his final year in charge, O'Connor will be going all out to finish with a flourish. In years when a league has been won under his stewardship, an All-Ireland has followed.
Since their loss to Mayo at the start of March, there is no doubt that Kerry are now moving better, with their score difference far superior to everyone else in the top tier.
In terms of likely All-Ireland winners, Galway and Donegal showed much earlier on in the league the as to their capabilities, this before a form of ennui set in. Kerry, Armagh, Dublin, Mayo, Tyrone, not necessarily in that order, are also in the mix, in a field that is tightly bunched together. The Kingdom have now moved to favouritism with most bookies and will shorten a little more if they account for the Green and Red.
And only a little more. Division 1 represented a phoney war of sorts, but Kerry and Mayo will hopefully give us a thrilling send-off, the third time in seven seasons they've met in the final, with the added significance here of winning the inaugural Mícheál Ó Muircheartaigh Memorial Cup.
Both know that sterner challenges are further down the road. New rules on a dry sod are sure to bring a different kind of madness and chaos.
Follow Sunday's Allianz Football League finals on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app. Watch Allianz League Sunday from 9.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Listen to updates on RTÉ Radio 1
