With two rounds to go in the Allianz National League, the make-up of this year's Tailteann Cup is taking shape.
The fourth edition of the second-tier football championship will see 17 teams competing to etch their name alongside Westmeath, Meath and Down as tournament winners.
The reality is that a handful of teams will be doing everything in their power over the final two rounds of the league to ensure that they are competing for Sam, rather than the Tailteann.
Many would argue that those struggling to make the top-16 counties may be better served operating in a competition that offers a genuine chance of silverware, but the appeal of being in the race for Sam - in theory rather than practice - and a provincial run often remains the number one target.
There is a lot of football to be played - 58 games across league and championship before we know the Sam Maguire and Tailteann line-ups.
The 16 teams who will compete in the All-Ireland series are: four provincial winners (first seeds), four provincial runners-up (second seeds), the next four highest-ranked sides in the league (third seeds) and finally the next four-highest-ranked sides in the league (fourth seeds).
That, despite how it may sound, is relatively straight forward in practice, Division 1 and half of Division 2. The last few positions are where the fun and games begin, the counties who are walking the tightrope between All-Ireland series and Tailteann Cup.
When the provincial championships crystalise, we will then see what 16 sides are set for the Tailteann Cup, along with New York. Barring some major championship shocks, the eight Division 4 sides and the majority of those in Division 3 will find themselves in competition that was first held in 2022.
Down – currently in the Division 2 relegation zone – are guaranteed a place in the All-Ireland championship, the perk to winning last year’s Tailteann Cup.
Any team that reaches a provincial final, regardless of the league they are in, are excluded from the Tailteann Cup, which brings the championship draws sharply into focus.
No county will be fretting quite as much as Cork. The 2010 All-Ireland champions are in a rather precarious position in Division 2, with two wins from five.
They are currently sixth, but if the standings were to finish as they appear now, they are likely to become the 21st team to appear in the Tailteann Cup as only an unlikely victory over Kerry in the Munster semi-final would keep them in the All-Ireland series.
Since the shock win in 2020, they have lost the last four championship games by an average of almost 10 points, though the last two contests - both one-score games - would indicate that the gap has been narrowed to some degree.
Louth (Division 2) and Division 3 sides Kildare and Clare are the teams with the most to play for in and around the All-Ireland series/Tailteann mix.
The Wee County currently occupy fifth place in Division 2, which could well be enough to avoid Tailteann duties, but a favourable draw in Leinster – ie, avoiding the Dubs - means aspirations of a provincial final are realistic.
They will take on Wexford (Division 4), or more likely Laois (Division 3) in their quarter-final, with Kildare (Division 3) or Westmeath (Division 2) awaiting in the last four. A third successive Dublin v Louth Leinster final would raise few eyebrows.
Clare are three places and two points adrift of Division 3 leaders Kildare but are in a more favourable position to make the All-Ireland series given the Banner would be strong favourites to see off either Tipperary or Waterford and most likely set-up a third successive Munster final with Kerry.
Kildare's penultimate game of the regular Division 3 season is essentially shoot-out for top spot, with the Lilywhites and Offaly both locked on eight points.
While they look well-placed for promotion - Down secured promotion last year as Division 3 finalists but were placed in the Tailteann, a competition they went on to win - manager Brian Flanagan will feel that a Leinster final position is likely to represents their chance of remaining in the race for Sam Maguire.
They take on a Westmeath side yet to pick up a point in Division 2, while Louth are most likely to await with a final place on the line.
With Galway and Mayo on either side of the draw, Connacht isn't a likely place for a side in the bottom two divisions to eye a path to a provincial final.
In the bear-pit of Ulster football, with Down assured of a place, Fermanagh are perhaps the best-placed of the 'outsiders’ to reach a provincial decider on 11 May, but it's a longshot, to say the least.
Victory over the Mourne men would leave them 70 minutes away from the Ulster showpiece, but their opponents would be one from Donegal, Derry and Monaghan.
All that still feels quite a while away yet. The rules, and subsequent adjustments are the main talking points for now, but it won't be long before championship focus sets in. Whether that is the All-Ireland series, or Tailteann Cup, remains to be seen for a certain few counties.
Plenty of football and permutations yet before the Tailteann sides are locked in.
Watch Allianz League Sunday from 9.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on all matches on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app. Listen to updates around the country on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
