Ethan Rafferty's return to fitness leaves Kieran McGeeney with a major selection dilemma and risk assessment ahead of Armagh's Ulster final against Donegal.
In the absence of McGeeney's first choice goalkeeper, Blaine Hughes has been in excellent form throughout the league and Ulster championship. But the decision to stick with Hughes or bring back Rafferty goes far deeper than just two goalkeepers fighting for the number one jersey.
The case for Rafferty is a remarkable 1-05 from play and 1-09 in total in less than two seasons, as opposed to three frees and nothing from play in nearly seven for Hughes. While the latter can point to the basics - a 91% kick-out retention in Armagh's two meetings so far against Donegal this year and eight clean sheets in 10 games in 2024.
Rafferty is a converted inter-county midfielder or half-forward whose inclusion exemplifies risk versus reward, while Hughes is a traditional goalkeeper with a quick kick-out and excellent shot-stopping qualities.
The tactical implications around this selection call will impact how both teams set up, and in the aftermath of this provincial decider it could prove to be the biggest decision McGeeney makes this week.
In last year's Ulster final, Rafferty came out the field for 45 in-play involvements (32 prior to extra-time) which included kicking two points, kicking two wides, assisting two scores and making six line breaks. Stats which most outfield players would be proud of - but Rafferty did play outfield for Armagh and when it comes to kicking and catching there are still few more talented options in the county than the big left footer.
In contrast Hughes has had 24 in-play involvements in the 2024 championship thus far, with no shots, assists, or line breaks and just five hand-passes inside the opposition 65m line in the wins over Fermanagh and Down.
Last year, Rafferty enjoyed the majority of his possessions between the Derry 45 and 65, often carrying the ball 20 or 30 metres at pace and with intent before making his play. He had an involvement inside the Derry 45 on nine occasions in comparison to Hughes' one hand-pass in two matches.
Along with his two assists, Rafferty also gave another great pass which led to a point, and delivered the kick-pass which Rory Grugan marked but ultimately kicked wide to win the game late on.
With him on the field Armagh essentially have an extra outfield player. When their defenders are pressed on their way out, they have an excellent out ball option, he can cause damage as a plus one, or create the plus one overlap. When Donegal fall into a low block Rafferty can break lines and he becomes a scoring option himself.
The first goalkeeper to score twice from play in a game in 2022, he can also push forward for opposition kick-outs, allowing Armagh to implement a high press to force a contest or exert massive pressure in their opponents' half.
In their win over Derry in the Ulster quarter-final, Donegal countered a similar approach by landing the kick-out on the goalkeeper's side. However, unlike other goalkeepers, Rafferty is well able to contest himself.
This still all constitutes a sizeable risk. Given how high up the field and how often Rafferty is involved, Donegal - with their rapid transitions - are always one turnover away from scoring a goal. Hughes, on the other hand, provides support but in a much more conservative manner.
He's careful yet moves things along quickly - 78% of his passes have been through the hands - and as a strength and conditioning coach by trade, he's more than capable of getting back quickly if things do go wrong.
While Rafferty has made some important saves since his conversion into a goalkeeper and is commanding under a high ball in the square, the much smaller Hughes is an excellent natural goalkeeper who brings much more stability overall. Hughes has saved the two shots he faced in this year's championship, although one rebounded off his own defender for an own goal while the other landed in front of a Down player to tap in.
Not yet kicking past halfway, Hughes has an 85% retention rate from his kick-outs so far in the championship. And in Armagh's two meetings against Donegal thus far in 2024, 91% of his kick-outs were retained, while he made two big saves from the two shots he faced.
The Carrickcruppen goalkeeper decided to step away from the panel at the end of the 2022 season after several seasons as the county's number one. Having been replaced by Rafferty mid-season, he opted to concentrate on his new business.
After Rafferty suffered a broken ankle playing for his club last July though Hughes returned, and has been excellent ever since.
During the league he kept a clean sheet in seven of his eight league games, extending that to eight out of 10 games without conceding when you include the championship. Hughes doesn't offer near the same tactical flexibility in terms of what he can contribute out the field or for opponents' kick-outs - but in terms of what he does do as a modern goalkeeper he comes into this Ulster final in superb form and as the safer option.
Armagh must also consider would Rafferty's involvement impact upon Rian O'Neill's new role in midfield, either allowing him to be the plus one to even greater effect - or slowing down and reducing his overall contributions.
In last year's Ulster final, while Rafferty was instrumental, the only starting Armagh forward to score from play was O'Neill. Raising a debate over how often they are going backwards - to Rafferty - to go forward.
In Rafferty's absence, and since returning from his own injury, O'Neill has so far kicked 56% of his possessions in the championship. That is a very high figure - more than every second possession - when you consider the nature of the modern game in the middle third. He's scored 0-04, one free, assisting three scores, attempting another four and making 15 kick-passes as opposed to 13 hand-passes.
Armagh's talisman is working his socks off around the middle, he's strong under the high ball, and always looking up to kick into an inside line who are well able to win their own ball. He's also able to score from distance to punish deep defensive blocks and is the player who Armagh need to be dictating matters.
So McGeeney won't just be picking his goalkeeper based on the usual - security, save-rate, kick-out retention. But also how he wants to approach opposition kick-outs, to shape his team's transitions and build-up play.
Ultimately, how much he wants and needs to risk it.
Watch the Ulster Football Championship final, Armagh v Donegal, on Sunday from 3.40pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to updates on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
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