Kildare need to reinvent their attacking gameplan with an emphasis on goals if they're to beat Louth and start delivering on an underage structure which has rivalled Dublin's since 2013.
Over the past two seasons their scoring average is lower than every team other than New York, London and Waterford. Managing to raise a green flag in less than a quarter of their games, the number of matches they've played without scoring a goal in that period is the highest in the country.
Relegated to Division Three, and scraping past a Division Four-bound Wicklow in their championship opener – Kildare surely should be enjoying the early stages of a golden generation instead.
While Dublin have won four Leinster minor titles, six Under-20s/Under-21s and two All-Ireland U20s since 2013, Kildare have the same amount of minor Leinsters and U20 All-Irelands. As well as four provincial wins at the Under-20s/Under-21s grade, while Naas CBS became the first Kildare school to win the Hogan Cup in 2022, a year after losing the final.
Dublin's current record-breaking team has been backboned by those underage successes, with the likes of Jack McCaffrey, Brian Fenton and Paul Mannion in 2014, and Eoin Murchan, Con O'Callaghan and Brian Howard in 2017 all graduating to the senior ranks with an Under-21s All-Ireland in the back pocket. Whereas Kildare come into this afternoon's clash against Louth in the unfamiliar role for this match-up of underdog, so what's going wrong?
Since the start of 2023 the Lilywhites are averaging 0-13 per game, a total which is unlikely to beat a Louth team who are the top goalscorers in the 2024 league and championship so far with 17 in eight games. You'll have to go down to the teams at the very bottom of Division 4 to get a lower scoring average than Kildare's.
While conversely, on the goals front, no team in the country has recorded more goalless games over the past two seasons than Kildare. The recently relegated Division 2 side have failed to find the back of the net in 76% of their 21 league and championship matches over the past two years.
Those damning attacking statistics come as little surprise when you consider their full-forward line touched the ball inside the opposition 21-metre line on just five occasions combined against Wicklow.
During that one-point quarter-final victory - which came after a Wicklow goal opportunity went narrowly wide of an empty net before the winning point was converted - 47% of the in-play possessions of Kildare's inside line occurred outside of the opposition's 45 metre line.
The tall and talented trio of Kevin Feely, Darragh Kirwan and Daniel Flynn had 28% of their total combined involvements in their own half of the field.
Kildare never came close to scoring a goal in that game. Which should have come as little surprise considering they kickpassed the ball (from play) into their full-forward line on just eight occasions. Without receiving quality, quick deliveries, and when positioned in their own half so often, to keep the scoreboard ticking the trio generally have to make their own scores. Which can easily develop into erratic shooting.
Against Wicklow, 82% of the passes the three inside forwards received were handpasses. Even with such limited involvement in attacking areas, the multi-talented Feely scored two from play within a total of 23 possessions, which also included an assist on top of five converted frees.
Kevin Feely and Daniel Flynn (R) battle for possession in their quarter-final win over Wicklow
Kirwan kicked two out of four attempts, and of the starting full-forward line he recorded by far the most amount of his touches inside the opposition 45. Flynn won a free and made an assist before being forced off halfway through with an injury.
Three of the four goals Kildare have scored this year arrived during their league defeat against Cork, with one being the result of a long ball in on top of Feely and another stemming from a direct ball into Flynn.
During last year's All-Ireland series they scored seven marks in four games, three from Feely and one from Flynn. When they do let it in, given Feely in particular is one of the best ball winners in the game, they generally get their rewards.
Yet despite the imposing size of their entire full-forward line, all up against much smaller Wicklow defenders, and the huge wind which was in their favour in the opening half and dying down in the second, they only kicked one high ball into them. Which Feely and Kirwan crossed paths for, with both looking to have the mark claimed.
Kildare's attacking play was summed up by their refusal to let the ball in and exploit a clear 2v2 in acres of space as they chased the winner in the dying stages. Their lateral passing ultimately led to them losing the ball, gifting Wicklow the chance to win the game.
While Kildare have increasingly struggled up top over the past two years, the Down team who'll be replacing them in Division 2 next year currently have the country's third best scoring average over the same period. Kerry are in second, with Dublin leading the way with an average of 2-14 per game.
Despite being neck-and-neck up to senior, Kildare are currently a long way off that standard. But fortunately for them, they have no shortage of talent to turn things around.
At the eighth time of asking on Sunday they'll have a chance to win their first game of 2024 against Division 2 opposition. But to do so they need to radically improve and alter their attacking play.
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