The Allianz Football League is heading towards its final break before back-to-back games to firm up the promotion and relegation pictures and to decide the eight teams that will advance to the Croke Park deciders.
After a weekend when shocks were in short supply, the picture is a bit clearer but there is still enough distortion to cause concern for many counties.
Here's how things currently stand across the divisions as the home stretch comes into view.
DIVISION 1
Final hunting
We’ll ignore the elephant in the room - that some Division 1 sides would almost certainly choose midtable safety over a league final on the mouth of championship.
With a number of big sides expected to head to sunnier climates this week, the final two games will no doubt be high on the agenda in their team meetings.
Despite their lacklustre performance against Dublin, Derry [8 points] remain well placed to reach a first Division 1 final since 2014.
Three points from their trip to Mayo and home game with Roscommon would be enough, but it may not even take that much. In theory, they could lose their next two games and still progress if results elsewhere went a certain way.
Dublin, Kerry and Mayo [all 6] can also all book a final berth over the final two rounds and with their matches against each other all wrapped up, they'll be keeping an eye on results elsewhere as well as trying to take care of their own business.
Galway [5] can technically make the final if they get to nine points, but they’d need so many results to go their way elsewhere that it can be all but written off.
Looking over their shoulder
Galway may technically be able to make a final as mentioned, but their main concern is still avoiding the drop, although Sunday’s win at Clones puts them in a strong position.
One win from their final two matches could bring scoring difference into the equation if Tyrone [4] and Roscommon [3] win their final two games to take them to eight and seven points respectively. Given that Pádraic Joyce’s side drew with the Rossies, the head-to-head rule would make way for the scoring column. It would also come into play if Galway and Roscommon end up on seven and Tyrone find a win and a draw in their last two outings against Monaghan and Dublin as the three would be level.
With Tyrone and Monaghan yet to meet, Roscommon need at least one win to survive but even two wins may not be enough.
For the Red Hands, a win at home to the Oriel County next week would not guarantee safety, but they’d be mighty close. If Monaghan [2] lose it though, they will officially be down as they’d only be able to catch Roscommon.
The trio of teams on six points, Dublin, Mayo and Kerry, are not mathematically safe but, again, they are realistically fine.
Fixtures
Round Six
Galway v Dublin, 16 March, Pearse Stadium
Tyrone v Monaghan, 16 March, O'Neill's Healy Park
Roscommon v Kerry, 17 March, Dr Hyde Park
Mayo v Derry, 17 March, Hastings Insurance MacHale Park
Round Seven
Kerry v Galway, 24 March, Fitzgerald Stadium
Monaghan v Mayo, 24 March, St Tiernach's Park
Derry v Roscommon, 24 March, Celtic Park
Dublin v Tyrone, 24 March, Croke Park
DIVISION 2
Final hunting
Four teams can still make the final in Division 2 – Donegal, Armagh, Cavan and Meath.
One win would all but guarantee Donegal [9 points] promotion with games to come against Kildare and Meath, given that Armagh [9] and Cavan [7] are still to meet. There is a scenario where all three end on 11 points and scoring difference could come into play.
Cavan travel to Armagh next and a win there would be huge as it would give them not only the points, but the head-to-head advantage. If they win and Donegal take a minimum three points from their final two games, then victory over Fermanagh in round seven would send Cavan up regardless of what Kieran McGeeney’s side do in Cork. Beat Cavan and Armagh are up.
Meath [6] need to win both games against Cork and Donegal, but even then they’d be relying on other results to favour them.
Looking over their shoulder
One relegation spot could be confirmed in round six if Kildare [0] lose to Donegal in Carlow.
Louth must be wondering how they are only on two points, and their home game with Fermanagh [3] is huge. If Louth win that, Fermanagh need to win in Cavan and hope that Louth lose to Kildare or that Cork lose their final two games.
Louth's one win did come against Cork though, which is important. Win the Fermanagh game, and if Cork lose their last two games and no other team is on four, they will be safe.They also have another outing against Kildare to try and gather points too.
A win would ensure the Erne County's safety.
Cork still need to be cautious. One win will be enough though. Louth could join them on six points and finish above them on the head-to-head but given Louth and Fermanagh also have to meet, three teams reaching that mark is out of the question.
Fixtures
Round Six
Meath v Cork, 16 March, Páirc Tailteann
Louth v Fermanagh, 16 March, Ardee
Armagh v Cavan, 16 March, Box-It Athletic Grounds
Kildare v Donegal, 16 March, Netwatch Cullen Park
Round Seven
Kildare v Louth, 23 March, Netwatch Cullen Park
Donegal v Meath, 23 March, Ballybofey
Cork v Armagh, 23 March, Supervalu Páirc Uí Chaoimh
Cavan v Fermanagh, 23 March, Kingspan Breffni
DIVISION 3
Final hunting
Four teams can still go up but in reality it’s a three-horse race.
Down [10 points] are sitting pretty on top and one win would have them on the brink. There could still be a three-way tie on 12 points even with that win, but their scoring difference is currently 28 points better off than second-placed Westmeath, who are also on 10 points.
Dessie Dolan’s side host the Mourne County next week and a win there would see them playing in Division 2 next year seeing as Clare [8] still have to come to Newry.
If the Banner can win their next two games, and Westmeath beat Down in round six, they will be up. If Down win against Westmeath, Clare's best hopes would be for two wins and for Westmeath to lose in Sligo in round seven. That would be enough.
The Yeats County [6] can still make the top two, but there’s little chance and a draw between Westmeath and Down would officially knock them out of the running as the highest they can get to is 10 points.
If Down beat Westmeath and Clare, and the Banner lose to Antrim next week, then two wins would take Sligo up though as they play Westmeath in their last outing and would have the head-to-head in their favour.
Looking over their shoulder
The situation is looking bleak for Wicklow [0] and Limerick [0], especially the Garden County who likely need a minimum of three points from their games with the Treaty County and Antrim as Offaly [2] have head-to-head advantage over them following their commanding win in round five.
One Wicklow win could open up the possibility of a three-way tie though if Limerick beat Offaly on the back of losses for both in round six. Scoring difference would then save one from those three, although Oisín McConville's side would need some swing as they are 56 points worse off than Offaly currently.
As well as the above three-way scenario, Limerick would be safe with wins over Offaly and Wicklow, or even possibly a draw with Offaly and a win over Wicklow. The latter scenario would bring it to scoring difference and would also require the Faithful to lose to Sligo.
One point will do for Antrim [4] over the last two weekends. Even without another point, it would rely on Limerick winning their final two games and Offaly winning in Sligo for them to be in real bother. Two Wicklow wins and Offaly picking up at least three points would mean Division 4 football in 2025 for the Ulster side.
Fixtures
Round Six
Wicklow v Limerick, 16 March, Aughrim
Clare v Antrim, 16 March, Cusack Park
Sligo v Offaly, 17 March, Markievicz Park
Westmeath v Down, 17 March, TEG Cusack Park
Round Seven
Sligo v Westmeath, 24 March, Markievicz Park
Offaly v Limerick, 24 March, Glenisk O'Connor Park
Down v Clare, 24 March, Páirc Esler
Antrim v Wicklow, 24 March, Corrigan Park
DIVISION 4
Final hunting
It’s all looking rosy for Laois [10 points]. The O’Moore County are one of only three teams with a 100% record – Division 3 pair Down and Westmeath the others – and they require just a single point from their final two games, against Leitrim and Waterford, to book a final spot.
Given that their four nearest challenges, Leitrim, Carlow, Longford and Wexford, are all on six points, it’s unlikely that two other teams will reach that 10-point mark, so even two losses might see them up.
Longford must play Carlow and Wexford still host Longford, so those games will have huge implications in the promotion race.
Tipperary [4] can in theory force a bottleneck for that second promotion spot if they win their last two games, but they’ll be looking a raft of results to go in their favour, so it’s almost certainly another season in the bottom tier for the Premier County.
Fixtures
Round Six
London v Waterford, 16 March, McGovern Park
Longford v Carlow, 16 March, Glennon Brothers Pearse Park
Laois v Leitrim, 16 March, Laois Hire O'Moore Park
Tipperary v Wexford, 16 March, FBD Semple Stadium
Round Seven
Wexford v Longford, 24 March, Chadwicks Wexford Park
Waterford v Laois, 24 March, Fraher Field
Leitrim v Tipperary, 24 March, Avant Money Páirc Sean Mac Diarmada
Carlow v London, 24 March, Netwatch Cullen Park
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