Through my experience, I've learned the hard way that semi-finals throw up surprises. We learnt that in 2014 playing Donegal when we were favourites going in and we sucker-punched.
It’s not wise for the players to be think there’s an air of inevitability about these games and I don’t think they will.
When you look at Dublin and Monaghan, we’ve never had an easy run of it playing against Monaghan through my career and even in the last time these teams met in 2022, Monaghan came out on top.
I think there’s a case of recency bias in relation to the performance we’ve seen from Dublin against Mayo, especially in that second half where they were just phenomenal in relation to their work-rate, their intensity and how they pressed up on Mayo’s kick-outs.
If Monaghan try to play the ball short through kick-outs and then play a slow, deliberate attacking style, like they have since the Derry game this year, they could be in trouble.
Dublin have learned so much from that Roscommon experience, where they let Roscommon have the ball in their own half and didn’t press them. I think Dublin will press up all over the pitch and try to pin Monaghan in.
That will make it really interesting to see if Monaghan can flip their tactics and kick the ball over the intense press and get the ball into their forward line.
Any time Monaghan are written off, we know what happens. They have some character in this team and we’ve seen, even in the league this year that you can’t write anyone off.
But I just feel that, based on the performance we’ve seen from Dublin, they are peaking at the right time and have strength and depth in their squad. The aura about Dublin seems to be back a little bit and I think they’ll find a way to win this by three of four points.
If Dublin do win on Saturday, it will put much more pressure on Kerry to set up that grand final, but I think that Derry are going to come with a plan and an ambush to spoil that party.
Derry have gone about their business really efficiently and quietly so far this year. I’ve been super impressed by them and even on the last day against Cork, it wasn’t a great game, but Derry were in control and it was played on their terms. I think that’s what they’ll try to do against Kerry.
When you look at some of the potential match-up’s we have in this game, they’re mouth-watering.
The idea of Chrissy McKaigue, the best full-back in the game, going against David Clifford, the best forward in the game. The midfield partnerships of Conor Glass and Brendan Rogers taking on Diarmuid O’Connor and Jack Barry, who had such a strong performance the last day out.
Then you have Shane McGuigan up top for Derry, taking on Jason Foley who has just been touch-tight on players with his pace.
I feel that Derry need to win all those battles to win this game, that they need everything to go their way, but with Kerry, even if Clifford is shut out, they still have Sean O'Shea, Paul Geaney and a forward organisation that can get the scores.
This game isn’t going to be as straightforward as people think, it’s going to be tighter and more attritional but I feel that Kerry are going to find a way to win this game.
It probably won’t be a classic but hopefully we get the classic in the All-Ireland final.
The Tailteann Cup is a competition that I can't wait to see develop into the future.
The players are loving it, it's been competitive, the games have been enjoyable to watch, and it just offers counties that are developing the opportunity of week-on-week games, learning from their performances.
It's been a real success so far and long may it continue.
This weekend the final features the two best teams. They’re two developing teams and it's a repeat of the 1991 All Ireland final, with Down and Meath, and many of the players who are taking to the field this weekend won’t have been born when that game was played.
These two teams met on 3 June, Meath narrowly won that game by two points. Down kick 17 wides that day and Conor Laverty was quite measured in his in his reflection of that game, feeling that they left it out there.
Since then, Down have dispatched Cavan and Laois, they looked electric in Croke Park the last day out, when the half-forward line scored six goals and three points and are a formidable force.
Odhran Murdock in midfield is a young up and coming talent, they've got Pat Haveron and Eugene Branagan who are prolific scorers, and Jim McGuinness is an advisor to this team, so what you expected is what you what you get, a very organised defensively team.
But I just feel that Meath still have enough to get over the line in this game. They’re a Division 2 team and they're going the right direction.
They've got Donald Keoghan as their inspirational leader at the back and he's orchestrating a new defensive structure that's being developed. They're strong in midfield, with Conor Grey and Jack Flynn, who were dominant against Antrim. They’re two really physical guys but they can also play ball.
But it's the full-forward line for me that's the most exciting, with Aaron Lynch, Matthew Costello and Jordan Morris. The last day they scored 2-10 between them and they looked so comfortable at HQ. I think they'll be the difference in this game.
Paul Flynn was speaking on RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland
Watch the All-Ireland Football Championship semi-final, Dublin v Monaghan (Saturday 5.30pm), and Kerry v Derry (Sunday 4pm) this weekend on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow a live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app or listen to live commentary on RTÉ Radio 1
Watch the Tailteann Cup final, Meath v Down, on Saturday from 2.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow a live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app or listen to live commentary on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
