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Preview: Monaghan unlikely to stop determined Dubs

Gary Mohan of Monaghan in action against Dublin's David Byrne during last Division 1 league clash between the counties
Gary Mohan of Monaghan in action against Dublin's David Byrne during last Division 1 league clash between the counties

Monaghan have long been a byword for resilience and survival instinct but they've seriously pushed the boat out this year.

They've won just six out of 14 competitive games in 2023, only finished third in the All-Ireland group phase, have a negative score difference of -12 across the year and yet they're still alive. They're now preparing for their fifth All-Ireland semi-final appearance since 1979.

In the off-season, Monaghan were one of those counties that couldn't find a manager for a long time, alongside Donegal and Roscommon.

For a while, it appeared that every recently retired Dublin footballer had been tapped up.

It seemed that the prospective pool of managerial candidates had taken a look at Monaghan's general trajectory and decided they didn't fancy their chances.

County stalwart Vinny Corey was eventually appointed, the timing of which was taken by outsiders to mean 'we couldn't find anyone else.'

Most intriguingly, former GAA Director General Paraic Duffy, a selector under Sean McCague for the Ulster winning side of 1985, was drafted into his backroom team.

Vinny Corey and Paraic Duffy watching the Dublin-Mayo quarter-final

Only retired since 2019, Corey was at centre back the last time Monaghan reached this stage five years ago, which ended with an agonising one-point defeat to their old nemesis (well, every Ulster team's nemesis) Tyrone.

If the manager was too inexperienced, the consensus was that their best players were too old - Darren Hughes and Karl O'Connell are 36 and 35 respectively, while their greatest player Conor McManus is 36 and is now deployed as a 'finisher' in the modern lingo. Rory Beggan and Jack McCarron have also tipped into their early 30s.

At the beginning of the season, Monaghan were once again touted as the obvious candidates for relegation from Division 1, with a folksy proviso added that they always confound these predictions.

Sure enough, after an unpromising start, they wound up in their usual spot of sixth at the campaign's end, this time aided by some fortuitous scheduling with the league final bound Mayo throwing out an experimental team on the final weekend.

Their championship campaign had begun in thrilling fashion with a two-point win in a startlingly open game against Tyrone in Healy Park, Beggan orchestrating a second half turnaround as a deep-lying playmaker and Ryan O'Toole nabbing the victory after taking the 'wrong option' in injury-time.

They then crashed to earth with an eight point loss to Derry in the Ulster semi-final. Their form was mixed in the group phase where they even managed to lose to Donegal - which took some doing in 2023 - in the final round.

But their prowess 'in the clutch' has come to the fore in the knockout phase. Fewer teams are as wily or shrewd in the dying seconds as Monaghan.

In the prelims, they edged out a rejuvenated Kildare, albeit in controversial fashion, Conor McCarthy drilling home the winner deep in injury-time amid confusion following a refused mark and then a failure to punish the subsequent over-carrying.

In the quarters, they became the third team to sink Armagh in a penalty shootout in the space of 12 months.

This was only after Rian O'Neill appeared to have won the game with a majestic swerved point from distance, which felt like a soaring crescendo to an otherwise stodgy game. Monaghan didn't panic, methodically working an equalising opportunity while Geezer and his backroom team pointed animatedly at their watches.

Beggan, who skied a desperate late equaliser attempt in the last play of the 2018 semi, eschewed the shot in favour of a pass wide to Michael Bannigan, he slipped it off to McManus who cut inside and drew the free. There was little doubt he'd nail the equaliser.

Corey wasn't inclined to revel in boo-ya smackdown talk afterwards, admitting "we didn't win a game, we won a penalty shootout."

McManus was a key figure in the endgame against Armagh

It's not just the older heads. Conor McCarthy, their nominal wing back, who has scored 2-11 from play in the championship, has emerged as one of the stars of the knockout phase. The match-winner against Kildare, he swung over three points from distance against Armagh. McCarron landed a headline grabbing 0-08 from play at home to Clare, a match Monaghan were expected to win.

The knockout phase has confirmed again that Monaghan are dead-eyed killers in a tight endgame. Whether they'll get close enough to be in one this weekend is another question.

Getting an exact reading on the Dubs' form and motivation levels has been a difficult endeavour for most of the summer.

For periods in 2023, they looked like a once great team in their footballing dotage, only playing in spurts here and there.

When the pressure point finally arrived against Mayo in the second half a fortnight ago, we got our definitive answer. The very least we can say is that Dublin are still there or thereabouts with the best team in the country debate.

During the second half, it felt like we had been transported seamlessly back to 2019. McCarthy charging, McCaffrey rampaging, Mannion hoisting over points on the swivel. Cluxton regally surveying his options before spraying a kickout down Fenton's throat.

Colm Basquel, long regarded as a league player and a championship bit-parter, had a landmark afternoon, firing home 2-02, the second goal killing off the game early in the second half.

There was a malevolent ruthlessness to Dublin's third quarter power play which Mayo seem to bring out. Their shooting efficiency was back to late Gavin era percentages.

Paul Mannion clipped over 0-02 against Mayo

In the past decade, Dublin's anaemic 2021 campaign is the main outlier, the primary bum note. They arguably returned to health last summer, only falling short against Kerry by a point in the semi. They now have four Hall of Famers - Cluxton, McCaffrey, Mannion and O'Callaghan - back in action, who were unavailable to them that day.

Interestingly, Ciaran Kilkenny, Dublin's only All-Star in the past two Sam-less years, was dropped from the starting XV against Mayo, coming on for Sean Bugler to lob a score in the final 20 minutes.

Is it possible to construct an argument for a Monaghan victory?

Monaghan have been a bogey team for Dublin in the league. As Dick Clerkin was at pains to point out this week, they've won three and drawn one of their last four league games.

It was Monaghan who condemned Dublin to a spin in Division 2 with a dramatic one-point win in Clones in the final weekend of last year's league - again McCarron stepping up to rescue the hosts at the death.

The Dubs of the 2022 league are a fairly different organism to this year's - and last year's - championship.

Perhaps we're being premature in proclaiming the Dubs revival for beating a clapped out Mayo side who'd been in a dogfight in Salthill the week before.

They've also made a habit of following decent performances with slack ones, so on 2023 trends they're due a bad one.

The emnity the current Dublin crop clearly feel towards Mayo, and which surely inspired the blockbuster second half, is fairly absent here.

Roscommon style bouts of possession football may be the order of the day. Bearing in mind how open Mayo were, we can assume Monaghan will be unashamedly defensive minded.

Rory Beggan's range of kickouts is far greater than Colm Reape's and he may be better able to cope with the full court press.

But it's a very long shot. At any rate, Vinny Corey's first year in charge is an unqualified success regardless.

The combination of the return of the old stalwarts, plus Pat Gilroy's involvement as the game's most illustrious water-boy, have given Dublin's 2023 season a curious Last Dance style vibe. A historic ninth All-Ireland medal is dangling before a clutch of players. It's hard to see Monaghan disrupting that story.

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Watch the All-Ireland Football Championship semi-final, Dublin v Monaghan (Saturday 5.30pm), and Kerry v Derry (Sunday 4pm) this weekend on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow a live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app or listen to live commentary on RTÉ Radio 1

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