The Allianz Football League's stock has risen dramatically over the last decade and the latest edition has only added to its reputation as a sizeable number of teams head into the final day of action with something to play for.
At this stage in 2022, three teams were unbeaten after six rounds and two sides had yet to collect a win ahead of a memorable final day that saw Dublin relegated from Division 1 while elsewhere Longford picked up a big win in Laois to move off bottom and send their opponents into the bottom tier.
It’s similar this season with just two unbeaten teams and four sides chasing their first win, meaning that there’s so much to play for across the divisions this Sunday.
Division 1
Galway v Kerry, Pearse Stadium, 1.45pm
Mayo v Monaghan, Hastings Insurance MacHale Park, 1.45pm
Tyrone v Armagh, O’Neill’s Healy Park, 1.45pm
Roscommon v Donegal, Dr Hyde Park, 1.45pm
There’s only one absolute certainty heading into the final round of Division 1 games, and that’s Mayo’s presence in the league final after Kevin McStay’s revigorated outfit collected 10 points from a possible 12 - the latest of those wins coming against Donegal.
Galway are best placed to join them there and they will ensure a Connacht derby if they avoid defeat at home to Kerry.
Three other sides hold out hope of a top-two finish though.
If the Kingdom can win in Salthill, and Roscommon and Tyrone fail to win against Donegal and Armagh respectively, they’ll set up a repeat of last year’s final. Even if Tyrone and/or Roscommon win, a big scoring win could see Jack O’Connor’s side progress.
Roscommon and Tyrone both need Kerry to win first and foremost to keep their final hopes alive. After that, if they win their games, then scoring difference will come into play.
As many as four teams could finish on eight points and at the moment Galway (+10) have the best scoring difference, with Kerry (+4) next and Tyrone and Roscommon both on +1.
The nature of the beast that is Division 1 football means that Kerry, Tyrone and Roscommon could technically still be relegated, but that would take a series of unfortunate events – or fortunate depending on where your loyalties lie.
For that to happen, Monaghan would need to win in Mayo and Armagh in Tyrone. That would leave the second relegation spot on six points – the total Kerry, Tyrone and Roscommon are currently on - and scoring difference would again come into play.
The Farney County are the kings of last-day heroics, but if Armagh were to avoid a defeat in Omagh, then they’d need a massive win in Mayo to have any chance of survival. Their simplest route is victory in Castlebar and hope that Tyrone do them a favour.
Armagh have their destiny in their own hands and a win over Tyrone would be enough. A Mayo win over Monaghan would also secure another season in the top tier.
Mathematically, Donegal can still survive but their fate has been all but sealed.
Paddy Carr’s side would need to beat Roscommon and hope that Monaghan and Mayo ends in a draw and Tyrone beat Armagh. If that was to happen, they’d still need a huge points swing with their scoring difference 28 points worse off than the Orchard County.
Division 2
Clare v Limerick, Cusack Park, 2pm
Cork v Derry, Páirc Uí Chaoimh, 2pm
Dublin v Louth, Croke Park, 2pm
Kildare v Meath, St Conleth's Park, 2pm
The permutations are a bit simpler in the second tier with half the promotion picture and the entire relegation scene sorted.
All eyes will be on Croke Park as Louth chase what would be one of the greatest league stories in recent memories.
Mickey Harte’s side are hoping to go from Division 4 to Division 3 to Division 2 to Division 1 in successive seasons – and a win over Dublin would secure that, along with a league final against already-promoted Derry who have won all six games to date.
Like Louth, Dublin’s task is fairly clear – avoid defeat against the Wee County and they’ll make an immediate return to the top tier.
There will be no relegation drama with Munster pair Limerick and Clare dropping down a tier. For the Treaty County, who experienced managerial turmoil during the league, that’s an instant return but the Banner’s exit brings to an end a seven-year stint in Division 2.
Clare boss Colm Collins will still be left shell-shocked by his side's losses to Kildare and Dublin where they let strong leads slip away to ultimately seal their fate. They can draw level on points with the Lilywhites if they beat Limerick and Kildare lose to Meath, but the head-to-head rule would then come into play and deny them.
Even though the mid-table teams are safe from relegation, they still have something to play for.
A team from outside the top two divisions is guaranteed to reach the Connacht final and, therefore, secure an All-Ireland spot, but if that’s repeated in any of the other provinces then we could very well see a Kildare or Meath in the Tailteann Cup later this season depending on how they perform in the Leinster championship.
Cork can’t finish any lower than fifth regardless of how results pan out.
Division 3
Cavan v Fermanagh, Kingspan Breffni, 2pm
Longford v Antrim, Glennon Brothers Pearse Park, 2pm
Offaly v Down, Bord na Mona O’Connor Park, 2pm
Westmeath v Tipperary, 2pm
Like Division 2, 50% of the promotion picture and the entire relegation story has been decided before a ball has been thrown in.
At the top, Cavan are guaranteed to move to Division 2 regardless of what happens at home to Fermanagh.
Even if they lose to the Erne County, they have the head-to-head advantage over whoever wins between Offaly and Down in Tullamore.
Offaly do have something to play for, even if their Mourne opponents do not. Wins for Offaly and Cavan would see Fermanagh dropping out of the promotion spots given that the Faithful County edged Fermanagh by a point early in the season.
Down, however, lost to the Erne County by the minimum and given that they were defeated by Cavan, their promotion hopes are dead in the water. A win may draw them level with the second-placed side, but the head-to-head rule scuttles them.
At the bottom, Longford and Tipperary, both on a single point from six games, are already preparing for life in Division 4.
Antrim’s safety was secured with their nail-biting win over Cavan last weekend while Westmeath have nothing to play for after successive defeats in Ulster over the last two rounds, against Down and Fermanagh.
Division 4
Leitrim v Sligo, Avant Money Páirc Seán Mac Diarmada, 1pm
London v Laois, McGovern Park, 1pm
Waterford v Wicklow, Fraher Field, 1pm
Wexford v Carlow, Chadwicks Wexford Park, 1pm
Over half the division can still go up, which is exactly the sort of excitement you want heading into the final round of fixtures.
Sligo hold a two-point advantage over the other main promotion chasers, Leitrim, Wicklow and Laois, while Wexford, back on six points, have a miniscule chance.
A draw in Leitrim would be good enough for Tony McEntee’s Sligo team but defeat would leave them sweating. If they were to lose and Laois won in London, they’d likely miss out as their scoring difference is currently just two points better off than the O’Moore County while Leitrim’s would be guaranteed to be better.
Even if Wicklow win, along with Leitrim and Laois, to leave four teams on 10 points, Sligo would almost certainly miss out. In that scenario, Wicklow would need to be bettering Laois’ winning margin by 19 points. In theory, bettering it by 18 points could be enough, but highest total scores for comes next after scoring difference and Laois hold the advantage there currently.
Laois will do what they can, a winning margin of more than a point in London, and hope for a favour from Andy Moran’s Leitrim.
The fly in the ointment for them is Wicklow. If Sligo don’t lose and Laois win, and Wicklow defeat Waterford, it will be Oisín McConville’s side who go up as they have the head-to-head advantage over Laois.
If Sligo avoid defeat and Wicklow win, then it’s a Crossmaglen one-two as McEntee and McConville’s sides would populate the promotion places regardless of what Laois do in London.
Leitrim know that a win would all but guarantee their place in the league final. It would ensure that they finish above Sligo and even if Laois and Wicklow were to win, the latter would have to annihilate Waterford to overhaul them. Currently Leitrim’s scoring difference is 23 points better than Wicklow’s.
The fifth team that can go up is Wexford, but the Model County really would require a final day miracle.
They would need to defeat Carlow to move to eight points and they’d also require Sligo to beat Leitrim, Wicklow to lose in Waterford and Laois to lose in London.
That would leave Wexford, Wicklow, Leitrim and Laois all in a tie for second on eight points and it would come down to scoring difference. At just +2 currently, Wexford would also need some big winning and losing margins to come into play.
Carlow, Waterford and London have nothing to play for but pride.
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