On paper, it should be an easy selection week for Andy Farrell.
The British and Irish Lions bullied the Wallabies for large parts of Saturday's first Test win in Brisbane, and even though Australia never looked like mounting a miracle comeback, Farrell will have had plenty to think about when he and his coaches sat down for their final selection meeting for the second Test this morning.
"I let everyone have their say," Farrell said, when asked how their selection meetings play out.
"I play devil’s advocate, and we thrash it out and we all agree. And that’s it. That’s exactly what we’ll do again."
Injuries will play a part in his selection, with second row Joe McCarthy’s foot injury making him a major doubt, and the coach gave little away when asked if he’s likely to be fit.
"He hasn’t trained so far [this week] but with the nature of the week, which is a bit different, we will see how he is for Thursday."
It looks like the Ireland and Leinster lock will be given the opportunity to test out his injury when the squad train at Xavier College in the city-suburb of Kew, with Farrell (below) set to name his side shortly after.
If he doesn’t make the cut, then England’s Ollie Chessum looks most likely to step into the second row to partner Maro Itoje, with Farrell unlikely to move Tadhg Beirne up from flanker, having dominated the Wallabies in Brisbane.
Were Chessum to start, Farrell could look at getting another back row on the bench, rather than promoting James Ryan or Scott Cummings. It would be tough on Cummings, with the Scottish lock one of the better performers in last night’s stodgy win against the First Nations and Pasifika XV, but the fact that he was left on the pitch for 80 minutes doesn't bode well for his chances.
Likewise, Josh van der Flier and Henry Pollock both played wire to wire at Marvel Stadium, and Jac Morgan’s departure early in the second half now makes him the frontrunner if a place becomes available on the bench.
Given how the Lions destroyed the Wallabies pack in that first half at Suncorp, it’s unlikely Farrell will tinker with the rest of his starting pack, but the way his side’s performance fizzled out in Brisbane potentially puts a couple of bench places up for grabs, particularly with the Australian pack set to be far stronger this week, with Will Skelton, Rob Valetini (below) and David Porecki all expected to be named in the matchday 23 by Joe Schmidt at 4.30am Irish time.
Luke Cowan-Dickie is fit again following concussion and could put Rónan Kelleher under pressure for the 16 shirt, while Ben Earl may face stiff competition from Morgan, even if McCarthy is cleared to play.
It’s in the backline where Farrell faces some big calls.
Garry Ringrose returned in Tuesday’s win against the First Nations and Pasifika XV and was one of the few standouts in an otherwise sloppy team performance.
Prior to his concussion after the win against the Brumbies, the Leinster centre appeared to be leading Huw Jones for the 13 shirt, and although he looked back up to top speed at Marvel Stadium, the 63 minutes he played were more than Farrell would have bargained for.
If Ringrose does get the decision, it will be fascinating to see whether Farrell is willing to retain Sione Tuipulotu at 12, or swap his midfield entirely and keep the all-Irish and all-Sottish partnerships.
It would be a harsh call to drop Tuipulotu based on Saturday’s win, and it’s possible the Scots are retained in the starting team, with Ringrose a versatile bench option.
Blair Kinghorn had some sloppy moments against the FNP side yesterday, but like Ringrose, he was tracking to be in the first choice squad at full-back before injuring his knee two games out from the first Test, and with Hugo Keenan (below) getting caught in the air for the opening Wallabies try at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday, that position could become a coin-toss.
Kinghorn’s versatility could also come to his benefit.
The Scotland international made his first tour appearance on the wing, and if Mack Hansen fails to recover from the foot injury which has troubled him in recent weeks, he could be an option on the right wing after Tommy Freeman failed to fire.
It would be a bold call for Farrell to make so many changes to a winning formula, but not an unprecedented one.
Four years ago Warren Gatland changed three of his starting team after the first Test victory against the Springboks, while Farrell was an assistant to the New Zealander in Australia 12 years ago when there were five changes made ahead of the second Test in Melbourne.
The Lions lost on both occasions, a cautionary tale against tinkering with a victorious Test team.
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