As the British and Irish Lions gear up for their long-awaited first Test against Joe Schmidt's Australia, there are a number of tight calls in Andy Farrell’s selection.
It’s expected when you amalgamate four nations to pick one rugby team, yet you can’t go past the first position without getting caught in a 50:50 decision.
Most would have thought Ellis Genge had a mountain to climb to displace Andrew Porter, but the Englishman has shown leadership, physicality and ball-carrying destruction that Farrell would love to utilise against Australia.
There’s a strong case for starting Genge and bringing Porter (below) off the bench to keep the intensity high.
The hooker position was a foregone conclusion once Dan Sheehan defied medical logic and returned early from his knee injury, in the exact same form as he left off.
Unless there are some clever tactics to reverse the order and use him to finish the game, he’s a nailed-on starter.
Rónan Kelleher was most likely the second choice anyway, but with Luke Cowan-Dickie’s unfortunate injury, both Irish hookers will be involved in the first Test.
The tighthead side of the scrum could have been debated further, however, Tadhg Furlong has shown that he’s the man in control of the jersey.
The question is whether Will Stuart or Finlay Bealham will back him up. In the spirit of bringing the nations together, this one might go in the Bath man’s favour.
The make-up of the back-five positions in the forward pack could be chosen in many different ways.
Considering Maro Itoje’s captaincy, he’ll slot into a second row spot.
Tadhg Beirne is another player that seems to be a certainty.
He’s had a few errors and penalty concessions throughout the tour, but he’s a Test-match animal and a favourite of Farrell’s.
The Munster captain’s leadership will be crucial in the first game against the Wallabies.
The rest of the pieces will fit in around those two players. Considering Beirne’s ability to play in the second row or at number 6, he’s the moving piece.
You’d expect him to accommodate the inclusion of Joe McCarthy in the second row.
Jack Conan is most likely the number 8 for this tour. Despite his man-of-the-match performance last time out, I don’t think Ben Earl will displace Conan at this stage.
That leaves another toss-up at openside flanker.
You could include Henry Pollock, but I don’t think the Brisbane clash is the time for that.
It’s a shootout between Jac Morgan and Josh van der Flier.
Both have given Farrell plenty to think about. Without seeing the team up close, I don’t think I can make that call.
I’d go for Van der Flier, yet I’d understand the selection of Morgan because of the physical stamp he is putting on the game.
The starting backline is beginning to form itself.
Jamison Gibson-Park with Finn Russell is a no-brainer at half-back.
Ben White has made a push for a spot on the bench, yet Alex Mitchell offers something different to the Leinster man. He brings a lot of control to the game and therefore will edge the bench spot. Neither player would be out of place in the 23.
The replacement out-half position is too hard to call.
It will depend on a 5:3 or 6:2 split on the bench. A 6:2 would take Fin Smith out of contention, with Marcus Smith and Owen Farrell battling for that spot.
Farrell covers the inside positions, meaning a wing would have to cover full-back and a centre would move to wing.
Whereas Marcus Smith covers 10 and 15, so you would struggle with centre cover, depending on the selection.
None of the other wingers or Russell will cover the centre, so a 6:2 would open the door for Farrell to earn a place on the bench.
Tommy Freeman could cover the centre, but he hasn’t been tried out there.
Andy Farrell has gone with a more traditional 5:3 split many times for Ireland so he might keep his options open.
His pack are well capable of going the 80 minutes so he might not feel the need to bring six forwards on the bench. That would open things up for his backline replacements.
The centre partnership would have been the most difficult decision across the pitch. Unfortunately, Garry Ringrose will miss the first Test, which opens the door for the Scottish partnership of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones.
Bundee Aki might make it instead of Tuipulotu but I would expect a familiar partnership.
He might also be on the bench in a 5:3 split, but again, there are many other factors.
James Lowe is guaranteed his spot on the left wing.
Mack Hansen has made things difficult for Freeman on the right wing which is another very tight call for the coaches.
The Northampton Saints flyer was the frontrunner from the start of the tour but now it isn’t as clear cut.
The bench could feature Marcus Smith and Aki covering out-half, centre and full-back, or it could be Farrell and Blair Kinghorn covering the same positions, should the Scottish back be fit. Hugo Keenan has taken his chance in the absence of Kinghorn, and considering his fight for fitness, the Ireland full-back will most likely be selected.
It’s difficult to pick the team on paper, never mind being on the ground and delivering the news.
There will be tough calls and some high-performing players will miss out altogether.
That’s the nature of the beast on a Lions tour. A three-Test series will be attritional.
Just because someone isn’t named in the first test team, doesn’t mean they won’t be a Test Lion.
Farrell has been consistent in his Irish selections, yet there have been times when you couldn’t predict the whole team. I’d assume a few calls will surprise people, maybe it won’t be as Irish as some expect.
There’s a lot of focus on the Lions, their selection and the hype that the tour brings.
However, Australia are entering this series under the radar, especially after struggling against Fiji.
Joe Schmidt is a shrewd tactician.
Expect a tight contest and a cohesive Australian performance. They haven’t played many games, which gives the Lions little insight into their gameplan, but maybe they’ll miss that preparation coming into a huge test.
It’ll be a fascinating weekend. The temperature will rise when the teams are named later this week, as we eagerly await the Lions selection.
Follow a live blog of the first Australia v British and Irish Lions Test on Saturday (11am) on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app.
