As President Trump's sweeping tariff policy on imported goods sends the stock market into shock and sparks fear of widespread inflation, his team argue that the current economic turmoil is only temporary.
When asked to justify that view, Trump's team have pointed to the case of washing machines tariffs. So, what can washing machines tell us about how they view the world, and what they think will happen next?
During President Barack Obama's administration, US appliance manufacturer Whirlpool requested action be taken against Korean rivals LG and Samsung, accusing them of "dumping" washing machines in the US market at unfairly low prices.
In response, the Obama administration imposed targeted duties.
When Mr Trump took office, he expanded those measures, introducing tariffs of up to 50% on imported washing machines in February 2018.
Since the tariffs targeted a finished consumer product rather than components like steel or aluminum, it gives us an opportunity to analyse the effects on the price and market dynamics. The outcome is complex but also instructive because both sides of the tariff debate say it proves their point.
The price of washing machines surged in the immediate aftermath of the tariff introduction in 2018. Increasing by around 14% in 18 months, compared to a much lower, wider inflation rate. The cost of washing machines, according to researchers from Chicago University, increased by around US $90.
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There was bad news too for Whirlpool because subsequent steel tariffs also introduced by President Trump affected its input costs. Just a few months after their introduction, CEO Marc Bitzer acknowledged "the net impact of all remedies and tariffs has turned into a headwind for us."
However, supporters of President Trump say the tariffs were judged too quickly. Like today's turmoil, they argue, their impact should be assessed over a longer timeframe.
By 2020, Whirlpool was expanding its operations in the US, hiring 200 new employees in Ohio and hosting President Trump at its massive manufacturing facility.
"Every day, 20,000 gleaming new machines come rolling off that beautiful assembly line… proudly inscribed with that glorious phrase, 'Made in the USA,’" the President declared during his visit.
In response to the tariffs, foreign manufacturers also shifted washing machine production to the US, with LG opening a plant in Tennessee and Samsung setting up operations in South Carolina.
Together, the two factories created around 1,600 direct jobs, and there was additional employment in surrounding industries and services too — a boost local officials dubbed "the Samsung Effect" in South Carolina.
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After the initial price spike in 2018, washing machine prices experienced significant fluctuations. The onset of Covid-19 introduced additional volatility and inflation.
Prices eventually dropped once the tariffs expired in February 2023. By the end of 2024 washing machine inflation was only a few percentage points higher than the overall inflation in appliances.
Trump's backers note the jobs which were reshored to the US but critics argue that the price increase was clearly driven by the tariffs, as shown by the drop in prices once they were lifted.
In other words, they say the cost of creating those jobs was paid for by the extra money hundreds of thousands of Americans paid for washing machines in the years when the tariffs applied.
According to one analysis, the jobs created by the washing machine tariffs came at a steep cost collectively to buyers of the appliances — an eye-watering $820,000 for each job.
They also point to the subsequent return of foreign imports, suggesting that consumers paid higher prices for products that were not significantly improved, all in support of a domestic industry that still faces many of the same challenges it did a decade ago.
Economic orthodoxy suggests that broad, blanket tariffs rarely achieve sustained success outside of specific, well-targeted sectors. Even in those cases, like with washing machines, it only succeeds if foreign manufacturers anticipate the tariffs and proactively establish production in the US.
To many, President Trump’s top trade advisor Peter Navarro, is far from an orthodox economist. He has been a constant source of praise for the administration’s tariff ambitions.
Speaking to Fox News, he urged Americans to "trust in Trump," asserting that the tariffs implemented during the first administration—including those on washing machines—had led to "prosperity and price stability."
Others like him maintain that, in the long run, the price impact will mostly level out - short term price pain, for long term jobs gain. While this logic may hold in Trump’s world, nearly every economist outside of it disagrees.
Not alone do they say the washing machine tariff did not work, they say Mr Trump’s current approach of blanket tariffs, all at once, on everything, everywhere, is not just economically misconceived but it is a recipe for a global trade war.
That trade war would, in their eyes, lead to companies pulling back from investing in new US plants, and curbing spending on expansion.
When it all washes out – they fear the jobs won’t come, but the prices will go up.
