With more than 100 seats filled in the forthcoming Dáil, count data shows a massive scale of transfers between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and almost no reward from their supporters down the ballot to their outgoing government partners the Green party.
Fewer than 2% of transfers given by FG and FF voters have gone to the Greens, including in cases after running mates from the voter's preferred party had been excluded. The three parties have been in coalition since 2020.
In comparison, once their own party's candidates have been excluded, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil supporters have transferred more than 10% to Labour.
While not the final data on Election 2024 transfers, the figures also appear to indicate Fianna Fáil voters would prefer Labour over the Social Democrats. Some 11.3% of voters moved on to Labour, compared to 5.3% to the Social Democrats.
The comparable Fine Gael numbers are 13.1% and 10.8%.
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The data for Sinn Féin shows a comparably large number of non-transferrable votes from their supporters, once the party's final candidate had been excluded.
While a massive 70% of second preferences go to other SF candidates, after the last Sinn Féin candidate has been excluded almost 30% of their voters provided no further preference.
In comparison, Fianna Fáil voters moved to the Fine Gael candidates, and vice versa, in large numbers.
Once the last Fine Gael candidate is excluded, almost 60% of their transfers are going to directly Fianna Fáil. The comparable figure for Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael is 46%.
Even when there are running mates still in the race, there are significant percentages of voters crossing to the other 'civil war’ party.
About 20% of the voters giving a first preference to FF or FG are selecting a candidate from the other party next, even while a candidate from their first choice party is available.
In the final hours of the election campaign, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, called for party supporters to transfer to People before Profit-Solidarity and the Social Democrats after the final SF candidate was given a preference.
The data shows about 9.8% of voters listened when it came to the Soc Dems, while some 14.3% shifted on to PBP-Solidarity.
The largest bloc of so-called ‘terminal transfers’ from Sinn Féin - transfers once there were no more SF candidates left - went to independents.
