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Take 7: The emerging Election 24 stories worth knowing

As we go from evening to night, more stories of Election 2024 will emerge.
As we go from evening to night, more stories of Election 2024 will emerge.

First counts are rushing in now. During the 2020 General Election, about 30 constituencies returned first counts in the hours between 6pm and 10pm.

As we go from evening to night, a clearer picture will emerge of the outcomes, and the transfers...and the stories of Election 24.

Here's a few to watch.


1) The McGahon factor?

Simon Harris & John McGahon

The first count in Louth is expected in the evening rush.

With all boxes tallied at lunchtime, John McGahon appeared to be in trouble.

Despite a term as senator, his lower-profile running mate Paula Butterly looked to be out-polling him. Tallies indicate he's unlikely to be celebrating this weekend.

Mr McGahon's candidacy caused the party trouble after a video emerged in the early days of the campaign of an altercation between him and another man outside a pub in Dundalk in 2018.

The footage was published by the Sunday Times, and Mr McGahon's suitability as a candidate subsequently constantly raised with party leader Simon Harris who backed him to remain under the Fine Gael banner.

Mr McGahon was acquitted by a criminal trial related to the incident. He was found 65% liable for damages in a subsequent civil trial, after which a High Court jury ordered him to pay €39,000 to the other man.

In response to the multitude of questions about Mr McGahon, Simon Harris repeatedly said that if he had been convicted of a crime, Mr McGahon wouldn’t be standing as a Fine Gael candidate.

2) Out in cold, trying to get back into the house

Candidates who previously contested elections for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, or Sinn Féin have been making a big impact on things so far, with several likely to pick up seats for new parties or as independents.

The most high-profile of those is Brian Stanley, who resigned from Sinn Féin in early October amid an internal party inquiry into his conduct.

Mr Stanley, the Chair of the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee, characterised the inquiry as a "a type of kangaroo court".

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said her party had sent a file relating to the matter to gardaí. A huge row ensued and Mr Stanley and the party parted ways.

Brian Stanley

Having topped the poll in the Laois-Offaly constituency in 2020, he's aiming to retain his Dáil seat in the new three-seat Laois constituency, this time as an Independent republican.

Intriguingly, with three seats in the mix, Mr Stanley came third this time around on the first count. He was followed in fourth by Sinn Féin’s candidate Maria McCormack.

Elsewhere, in Galway West, former Fianna Fáil councillor Noel Thomas is performing well with 92% of boxes tallied.

In Roscommon-Galway, former Fianna Fáil TD and Senator Eugene Murphy, who's now running as an Independent, says his chances are slim.

Former Fine Gael members Kate O’Connell in Dublin Bay South, and Patsy O’Brien in Mayo, also appear to have outside chances of grabbing a seat on transfers.

Get the popcorn out for those late night counts.

3) A haon(tú), a dó, a trí?

Peadar Tóibín and other Aontú candidates

Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín starred in a number of TV debates ahead of polling day and regularly had an outsize influence on proceedings - impressing commentators and political observers.

He said Aontú was targeting up to ten seats, and appeared to hope his party colleagues would benefit from his campaign prominence.

The only Aontú incumbent in the race is almost certain to retain his seat. However, tallies suggest he could be on his own again once the Dáil returns.

The party is set to double its vote on last time out - yet isn’t attracting the type of support it needs outside of Mr Tóibín’s Meath West constituency to capture seats.

Several of the parties’ candidates, including Sarah O'Reilly in Cavan and Jim Codd in Wexford, look likely to poll well, but tallies are indicating they will have to come through a transfer dogfight to pick up a seat.

4) Domestic bliss? Maybe not

Two married couples are running in the general election - Fine Gael’s Maeve O’Connell and her husband Colm Brophy, and Catherine Martin and Francis Noel Duffy of the Green Party.

In a quirk that could surely only happen in an Irish election, both couples are competing against each other for seats across two constituencies.

In Dublin-Rathdown, the wives are battling it out, with Ms O'Connell looking likely to usurp outgoing Minister Martin for the final seat.

In Dublin South West the husbands are both on the ticket, with Mr Brophy expected to retain his seat, while it appears Mr Duffy might be a victim of the Green wilt of 2024.

5) From lawbreakers to lawmakers?

Gerard Hutch

How many former prisoners will Ireland elect in 2024? Two, it seems.

In Dublin Central, Gerard Hutch is on course to pick up a seat in what is often seen as one of the most competitive constituencies in the country.

By the time he was 20, Mr Hutch had amassed at least 30 convictions for offences including burglary, assault, larceny, car theft, joy riding and malicious damage.

He was sentenced to two years for malicious damage in 1983.

Another candidate in the running to pick up a seat who has also served a custodial sentence is Michael Clarke of Independent Ireland. He's running in Sligo-Leitrim.

The former Fianna Fáil party member was sentenced to two years behind bars back in 2002 for his role in a fraud against the Department of Agriculture.

He was found guilty of conspiring to steal a government pay order worth over €34,000, and two counts of handling government pay orders worth over €64,000 between September and December 1997.

During the campaign he told Shannonside Radio he had "rebuilt his life" after the sentence.

Early tallies put him in third place, in the four-seat constituency.

6) Don’t call it a comeback

Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher in 2020

It looks like a number of former TDs who missed out at the last election have made miraculous comebacks this time round.

Former Fianna Fáil deputy Eamon Scanlon lost his seat in 2020 but is a front-runner in the Sligo-Leitrim constituency, tallies suggest.

In Longford-Westmeath, Independent candidate Kevin 'Boxer’ Moran is running again, after losing out in 2020, and looks set to make a return.

Mr Moran declared the "Boxer will be back" after a positive result in the local elections and told the Westmeath Independent that he had "unfinished business" in the Dáil.

In Donegal, former Fianna Fáil minister of state Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher is also on course to win back the seat he lost in 2020.

7) Let the 'reckless' review start now?

Fine Gael’s strategy in some constituencies has been called into question, with one party insider suggesting their candidate selection in Wexford was "reckless," and left "a lot to be desired".

Cathal Byrne from Ballyhogue and Bridín Murphy from Clonroche hail from a similar part of the constituency geographically, which may have something to do with the fact neither are likely to be elected.

Similarly in Donegal, it looks as though the party will have no TD from the constituency for the first time in the history of the State, with tallies suggesting their two candidates, John McNulty and Nikki Bradley, are going to garner less than 10% of the vote between them.

The picture in Kerry is developing in a similar fashion, with former All-Ireland winner with the county Billy O'Shea facing a battle with Fianna Fáil's Michael Cahill over the final seat.

How will that play over the course of the count?

And how will that play out within the party after all is said and done?

You just can't beat an election count, can you. Once it's not your votes being counted.