In the first of a series of reports on the 2024 US Presidential Election, Louise Byrne reports from Erie, Pennsylvania, a town and a county that has switched between Democrat and Republican candidates in recent elections, and each time sided with the eventual winner.
In Bello's supermarket, the ground beef used to cost $1.69 a pound. Now the meat is closer to three dollars. The shelves of the independent grocery in the Erie suburb of Millcreek tell a story of price inflation during the Biden administration, but the shoppers in the aisles also have a story to tell.
Tyler Bell is the type of suburban voter both Democrats and Republicans need to win over.
"You see everything on the rise from houses to groceries. Prices are just going up and going up," the 32-year-old mother of two tells Prime Time.
She’s a little reluctant to be interviewed on TV having just finished a yoga class, but is definitive when asked about her vote.
"I’m voting for Donald Trump. I think that he is what's best for my family, and best for the country."
"His personality is just out there. He’s funny to watch."
It’s not just Trump’s charisma that attracts Tyler, it’s his promise to make the food in her trolly cheaper.
While the annual inflation rate in the US is almost back down to two per cent, prices overall remain more than 20 per cent higher than they were three years ago. Pennsylvania’s grocery prices saw the highest increase of any State over the last year.
"I don't want to talk bad about Kamala, but I did see a sign that said, if you're not doing what you need to do now, why are you getting a promotion?" Tyler laughs.
Buying meat and cheese for his lunch at the store’s deli counter is Gary Bigwood. He’s a tall, imposing, semi-retired bachelor who has already cast his ballot for Kamala Harris in the State’s early voting system.
A swing voter, in a swing county, he previously voted for Republican candidates.
The motivation this time around? "I just do not like Donald Trump".
Erie is known as a boomerang county, having voted for Obama twice, then Trump, and back to Biden in 2020. Only a handful of counties in swing states have followed the same pattern.
In recent weeks the airways have been bombarded with political ads and locals describe receiving multiple campaign fliers in the post daily. The election has also dominated the agenda on Joel Nathalie’s 'Talk Erie' radio show. Callers are divided on Trump, rather than being energised by Harris, he says.
"It's kitchen table issues versus character," Nathalie explains. "A binary on Trump."
Describing the 2016 victory in Erie as an "earthquake", he says Trump activated voters that had given up on the system.
Erie is more than 100 miles from larger cities like Pittsburgh and Cleveland, but both presidential candidates have made the trip in person and surrogates have held regular rallies. Despite the attention and the huge ad spend, if Trump loses it could be down to the campaign locally, Nathalie argues.
"The infrastructure of the Harris campaign on the ground in the county here is definitely stronger than the ground game of Trump. So maybe that could push the needle."
Ryan Bizzarro and his team certainly hope so. Kamala Harris is at the top of a ballot paper which includes other Democratic candidates like the 38-year-old member of Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives.
Prime Time arrives at Bizzarro’s campaign office in Millcreek as a group of carpenters attached to a local carpenters union are being readied for a final canvass. Leaflets, posters and badges for candidates up and down the ballot are ready for distribution. The canvassers head out armed with waterproof bags each filled with campaign fliers.
Because so many residents are already registered Democrat, Republican and Independent, the team can target their mail drop to who they think is most likely to vote. It’s a surgical operation to activate those who might decide to stay home on 5 November.
"Today is getting out the vote, making sure folks go and vote," Bizzarro tells the programme.
Around Erie there’s talk of a potentially shy female vote for Kamala Harris. He thinks women will "save democracy". Democrats are also hoping former Republican supporters of Nikki Haley may quietly vote for the Vice President.
"There are a lot of men and women who just don't want to talk about who they're voting for. Politics in this country has become so divisive," Bizzarro explains.
He’s bullish when it comes to the Harris campaign’s recent aggressive messaging against Donald Trump.
"What people haven't seen Democrats do is fight fire with fire, and I think we're doing a great job this year at attacking him for the person that he truly is."
The election will be won and lost in moderate suburbia, and nowhere is that more true than Pennsylvania. With huge Democrat votes in its cities — Philadelphia and Pittsburgh — big Republican support in its southern counties and 50/50 suburbs, it’s a reflection of the modern American voting map.
Beneath the local stadium floodlights, there’s a large crowd for the game between neighbouring high schools, Iroquois and Harbour Creek.
Between the touchdowns, cheerleaders and marching bands, politics is low on many people’s agenda. Plenty tell Prime Time they have yet to make up their minds, others don’t want to discuss the election, while more still say they aren’t planning on voting.
Leaning over the barrier, growing increasingly exasperated by his team’s performance on the pitch, JC is keen to show his support for Kamala Harris.
"I think she's authentic. She doesn't want to walk over her predecessor, she still wants to be supportive, but I think she'll do a better job than Biden did."
Sylvia, who is watching the game with her adult son, says the $400 cost of her husband’s medicine is among the reasons she’s voting for Trump.
"Harris has been in for three and a half years, and what has she done?
"Sometimes I wish Trump would shut his mouth. He does say things that he shouldn't be saying but sometimes you just gotta let it slide."
Demographically, doing well in Erie bodes well for other areas. If you come up with a message that lands in this area it will probably be landing elsewhere. The city’s best known political scientist, Professor Joe Morris believes that message needs to be accompanied by a strong presence on the ground.
"Voters expect people to knock on their doors. They expect to have the campaigns reach out to them personally in one way or another."
"In Erie county the Democrats got a much earlier start and they've done a much better job with the ground game than the Republicans have. In fact, for the last several months, Republicans had been paying catch up," the Mercyhurst Professor contends.
He says the vast suburbs have seen an increase in diversity of political opinions.
"What you find is on one street there'll be a line of Donald Trump yard signs, and on the next street, Kamala Harris. It’s something you wouldn't have seen 20 years ago."
Erie’s heyday of manufacturing is long gone. There are fewer jobs and residents today than there were in 2001 and job opportunities for young people are limited. But green shoots in the economy are being driven by medical and educational institutions. The biggest employer used to be a General Electric locomotive factory, now it’s an insurance company.
"The most important demographic here has always been the working class, blue collar workers who get up in the morning and go to the shop and do their job. Unfortunately for the Democrats, those voters are no longer attached to them the way they used to be. They're up for grabs," Prof Morris explains.
He agrees with Ryan Bizzarro that the gender divide will be key.
"Women are the most likely to turn out to vote in presidential elections. If Kamala Harris wins she’s probably going to owe her victory to women."
Local business owner, and Millcreek resident Julie Hersch says some people are reticent to voice their support for Harris. She’s reluctant to put a yard sign up in her own area.
"I may be the only one but I think Kamala is going to win by a landslide."
Hersch’s adult children are also voting Democrat because of "guns and Gaza" while her husband has been won over by the Vice-President’s position on abortion.
"He watched the debate and said Kamala gave the best answer he heard to describe that pro-choice does not mean pro-abortion. She highlighted how that decision should be between the woman and her doctor."
Both Donald Trump and JD Vance visited Erie in recent days and Chair of the Erie County Republican Party Tom Eddy says they’ve a clear target voter in mind.
"It's the Independents - about 30,000 of them - that will make the difference in Erie County. If you can get the majority of them to go towards Trump, we're in great shape," he told the programme.
"We're not going to spend our time going to a Democrats house because that's just not going to happen. But we will go to Independents and we will go to Republicans and try to give them information that they're asking for."
Almost everyone involved in Erie politics will tell you that if a presidential candidate can win the county he or she will likely take the State of Pennsylvania and probably the White House. But it’s apt and maybe telling that there are as many Halloween decorations as political signs throughout Erie.
Voter apathy is a huge challenge for both sides, but at the moment the momentum is "very slightly" in Trump’s favour, according to radio host Joel Nathalie.
"It’s ebbing and flowing with the news cycle or with a visit. I think it's a razor's edge. It could go either way.
Louise Byrne, Tara Peterman and Lucy Kennedy's report from Erie broadcasts on the 29 October edition of Prime Time. Further reports will be published and broadcast ahead of and around the 5 November election.
