This day last year, Ireland had half as many Covid cases, fewer people with the virus in hospital, and the same numbers in ICU.
The darkest days of the pandemic were still two weeks away.
Though the numbers now are ostensibly worse, the Government and NPHET are of the view that there's no need to introduce further restrictions.
So what is happening? What’s the rationale for that outlook? And does it indicate they believe the Omicron variant may be causing the last major wave of the pandemic?
According to people on NPHET and in the health system, most of their optimism relates to how many cases are turning up in hospital and being admitted to ICU.
Before vaccines, about 50 in every 1,000 cases of Covid-19 would be hospitalised. Around seven would be admitted to ICU.
After vaccines, but before Omicron, those numbers had fallen to around 25 hospitalisations for every 1,000 cases, and just three ICU admissions.
Now, NPHET appears to be of the view that the accelerated booster roll-out, combined with Omicron sending a smaller proportion of cases to ICU than the Delta variant, has pushed these numbers down further.
The view is that for every 1,000 cases, fewer than 10 and possibly as few as five people will be admitted to hospital. Estimating the likely reduction in the proportion being admitted to ICUs is not yet possible, as the case surge began so recently.
But it's hoped it’ll be so low that it will mean manageable ICU numbers over the coming weeks, despite enormous infection rates now.
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The surge in the number of Omicron cases emerged around Christmas Eve. ICU admissions typically lag behind case increases by around two weeks.
We would typically expect to see a rise in ICU admissions right around now. But it hasn’t materialised, or at least not yet. That is one reason for hope, according to sources close to NPHET.
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But they also warned there are reasons for caution.
For one thing, the typical case is disproportionately young at the moment. It’s hard to know what will happen with ICUs once older people get exposed at higher rates.
That’s why you’ll hear Government ministers and public health officials warning that we need another week of numbers before making decisions.
If – and it is an if – the optimism proves warranted, ICUs won't be overwhelmed. But the combined impact of hospital admissions, potential Omicron-related complications and staffing shortages may still cause problems.
In the last week, hospitalisations have more than doubled. Each case causes an infection-control issue.
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The trend line itself is worrying, but people close to the health system told Prime Time that a higher than normal number of recently admitted patients are primarily being treated for other issues.
Covid may still be an important complication, but for more people than in previous waves, it’s not the main reason they were hospitalised.
The rise in hospitalisations should peak around the last week of the month, according to NPHET’s modelling. The spread of infections should be slowing around now.
That slowdown in the growth of infection numbers is modelled to occur simply because Omicron has spread so incredibly fast that it will begin to find it difficult to reach new people.
This high rate of infection isn’t "good news". It brings the potential for serious Long Covid issues in the future, particularly in unvaccinated people – many of whom are, it should be remembered – children going to school.
But the diminished impact on hospitals, and especially ICUs, would certainly be a positive development.
So what would all that mean for the end of the pandemic?
That depends on your definition of "the end of the pandemic".
When this wave has passed, almost everyone will have obtained some level of immunity. Most will have been vaccinated and boosted, many will have been infected, and very few will have no immunity whatsoever.
According to the modelling, we should have accumulated enough immunity against Omicron to begin to lift remaining restrictions without causing an explosive rise in severe cases.
For some, that’s the end. But it certainly won’t mean the virus disappears.
At a governmental level, there will remain a need to monitor the disease for a long time to come, and potentially react to new variants. That's the big worry.
For many individuals, the presence of Covid-19 will impact day-to-day decisions for months or even years. The virus, and the health problems it causes, will be a concern for the health system for decades.
Everyone who spoke to Prime Time said there is reason for cautious optimism about the coming months, assuming the Omicron wave proceeds without a surge in ICU numbers, or previously unseen complications linked to the variant. The next week will be key.
If all goes as hoped, there will be further waves, but with each wave, and each vaccine dose, we’re building up a wall of immunity as a population.
That should give us reassurance. Yet, we know the virus has torn up the script many times before.
