It’s fitting that one of the most contentious presidential campaigns in American history is going out on a negative note. How else could the 2016 election end?
Donald Trump has based his presidential campaign on taking an antagonistic tone, so that part isn’t a surprise. But as the polls tightened in the waning days—the RealClearPolitics average has Trump trailing by only 1.7 percentage points -- Hillary Clinton has increasingly mimicked Trump’s take-no-prisoners style.
Clinton and her supporters, including President Obama, have been hitting Trump hard on his past comments about women, tying supportive statements by the Ku Klux Klan around his neck, and calling him “unfit” to be president.
Trump, meanwhile, has used that same loaded word – “unfit” – while unleashing a tough ad in the campaign’s closing days spotlighting the FBI’s announcement of more emails apparently related to Clinton’s private server. The ad refers to the “pervert Anthony Weiner” and claims Clinton is under criminal investigation (which several media organizations have fact-checked as wrong).
RCP’s Alexis Simendinger and Caitlin Huey-Burns wrote about this rash of negativity, noting the past few days “helped guarantee that America’s most venomous and lurid presidential election in modern history will slither to the finish line.”
The effect on voters remains to be seen – NBC News reported that 36 million Americans have taken advantage of early voting, more than in previous elections. About 30 million voted early in 2012.
Despite the high turnout, voters are not happy with the tone of the campaign. The latest CBS News/New York Times poll found that 82 percent said the election has left them disgusted. Only 13 percent of Americans said they were excited about the campaign.
And both candidates continue to have record high unfavorable ratings – something unseen in the history of presidential polling. Usually candidates hover around a -1 or a +1 percent in favorability – basically a wash.
But Clinton’s unfavorable rating is at 12.6 percent in the RCP average while Trump’s average is at 18.3 percent. The candidates, meanwhile, are campaigning hard in the final days.
New Hampshire has become a surprisingly hot state in play. It only has four electoral votes but that small number could pack a mighty punch on election night. Trump is leading by 1.7 points in the RCP average of the state.
RCP’s Rebecca Berg and Caitlin look at how the GOP nominee is counting on the state to put him back on track for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
Trump will end his campaign Monday night in Manchester, N.H., the site of the first-in-the-nation primary—and the place where he served notice on the political establishment that 2016 would be a year like no other. So, it’s come full circle for the business mogul. His primary win there in February was the first of his campaign and, in hindsight, put him on the path to the nomination. Leading up to his rally, daughter Ivanka Trump will campaign for him there on Sunday.
Hillary Clinton will be in the small state on Sunday and President Obama will campaign for her there on Monday.
Other hotly contested states include North Carolina, where Trump leads by less than one point in the RCP average. Obama campaigned for Clinton there on Friday and Chelsea Clinton will do likewise on Sunday. Trump will be in North Carolina on Saturday and Monday. His son Eric Trump will be there Saturday.
Pennsylvania is also tightening, a development that worries Democrats. It has 20 electoral votes, which ties it with Illinois as the fifth-largest state in the U.S., and no Republican has carried it since 1998. Clinton leads in the RCP average there by three points but she had been leading by almost 10. She will close out her campaign in Philadelphia, where she accepted the Democratic nomination, with a rally Monday night (she’ll be joined by Obama, Michelle Obama, and husband Bill Clinton). Before that she will join pop singer Katy Perry for a get-out-the-vote concert in Philly on Saturday, plus she has Vice President Biden, a native son of Pennsylvania, zig-zagging across the state for three days. Trump campaigned there Friday and Melania Trump made a rare campaign appearance in the Keystone State on Thursday. Ivanka Trump will make a stop there on Sunday.
Finally, it could all come down to Florida, home of the infamous hanging chads that dogged the 2000 presidential election. Clinton and Trump have taken turns leading in the RCP average of the Sunshine State. Clinton is currently up by 1.2 points.
Clinton will be there on Saturday, as will running mate Tim Kaine. Rock star Jon Bon Jovi is holding a get-out-the-vote concert for her on Sunday and Obama will be in the state campaigning for her also. Trump will be there Saturday and his running mate, Mike Pence, was there on Friday. Donald Trump Jr. will campaign for his dad there on Saturday.
Clinton and Trump will both spend Election Day in New York, voting at their respective polling stations and holding events with supporters that evening.
--Emily Goodin is managing editor of RealClearPolitics; Carl Cannon is RCP's Washington bureau chief.
