Dutch and British gas prices edged lower today as comfortable supplies offset concern about ongoing disruption through the Strait of Hormuz as the outcome of peace talks between the United States and Iran is unclear.
The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub was down €0.987 at €46.485 per megawatt hour or around $15.87/mmBtu, ICE data showed.
The British June contract was down 2.22 pence at 113.1 pence per therm.
"From the fundamental perspective… the situation is rather bearish," LSEG analyst Dzmitry Dauhalevich said in a daily research note.
Total Norwegian exports are nominated 5 million cubic metres/day higher at 293mcm/d while 17 cargoes of liquefied natural gas are expected at terminals in Northwest Europe over the next two weeks, LSEG data showed.
The Iran conflict has led to the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which roughly a fifth of the world's LNG typically passes, pressuring global gas and oil prices.
Some LNG tankers have passed through the strait in recent days lifting some traders' expectations that the waterway might reopen soon, which would add to global supply.
However, analysts at Rabobank said they expected the strait could be effectively closed until September.
"A Hormuz closure up until September raises the risk of serious market intervention, through export restrictions, forced reshaping of energy flows and further temporary removal of energy sanctions, impeding market pricing signals," Rabobank analysts said in a research report, forecasting average front-month TTF prices at €60/MWh for the third quarter of the year.
