Compass Group has today raised its 2026 profit outlook, as the world's largest caterer bet on demand for workplace dining and new contract wins despite concerns over artificial intelligence's impact on office-based clients.
The food services sector has shown resilient growth as companies, hospitals and universities increasingly outsource catering operations, with Compass noting that half of its $4.1 billion in new business came from first-time clients.
Compass, which serves office workers at companies including Google, Amazon and Microsoft, is also expanding into sectors such as defence, airline lounges and data centres to diversify revenue and hedge risks from AI-driven job shifts and changing eating habits linked to weight-loss drugs. Globally, firms are also battling rising energy costs.
Compass, which serves everything from cafeteria meals to fine dining, is well positioned to manage any impact from the Iran war, as it has no direct exposure to the Middle East, CFO Petros Parras told analysts.
"We have a significant competitive advantage and that plays out in our relative pricing against the streets, where we're not tied to menus, we don't have the utility costs and we don't have the burden, in particular, of energy," CEO Dominic Blakemore added.
About two-thirds of Compass' contracts include dynamic pricing - where prices are adjusted based on demand - while others have clauses covering food and labour costs, helping it stay insulated from rising costs, Parras said.
Compass said it has raised prices by nearly 3% and expects further similarly moderate increases for the rest of the year unless inflation worsens.
Compass said it expects full-year underlying operating profit growth above 11%, up from about 10% forecast previously.
It raised its outlook after first-half underlying operating profit rose 12% to $1.84 billion, while organic revenue grew 7.2%.
The results contrast with French rival Sodexo, which cut its annual sales and profitability targets in April, citing execution challenges and contract reviews.
"We think results are solid across the board, and should be taken well on the back of cautious expectations," Jefferies' analysts said.
