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Early days, but inflation is biggest risk - Deloitte

The biggest risk for the Irish economy is inflation if theres a sustained disruption to supply chains, and the production of oil and gas - Kate English
The biggest risk for the Irish economy is inflation if theres a sustained disruption to supply chains, and the production of oil and gas - Kate English

It has been a tumultuous few weeks for the US economy and the Federal Reserve will announce its March interest rate decision later this evening.

For consumers, these policy decisions affect inflation, the job market, and borrowing costs.

This is the US Fed's second rate decision of the year and it comes as the Iran war has sent oil markets into chaos.

It is widely expected the Fed will hold rates steady when it makes its decision later.

That is because the outlook for inflation is dramatically different to the last meeting, according to Deloitte Chief Economist Kate English.

With that expectation of no cut to interest rates, Ms English said there are two things to watch.

"One, the language that they use in the press statement in the press conference to describe inflation and their view of how inflation may progress over the coming months and year," she explained.

"And the second piece will be their updated economic forecasts and inflation outlooks that are due to be released as well," she added.

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Ms English described how she does not anticipate any significant change in those forecasts because its such early days in the conflict.

"It will have been incredibly difficult to incorporate that uncertainty into those models," she said. "However, they're still vitally important, and it's the language that they use to describe their view of inflation that I think will captivate most economists and markets today."

With oil prices hovering around the $100 a barrel mark, Ms English commented that markets are reacting a bit more muted than expected.

"Overall we've not seen oil spike to the levels that we would have experienced most recently during the war in Ukraine, again though markets will be looking to that language that comes out from inflation," said Ms English.

But the biggest risk for the Irish economy is also inflation, if there is a sustained disruption to supply chains, and the production of oil and gas.

"If that is to be a high level of inflation that moves from not only energy prices, but makes its way through every part of our economy, I would expect both businesses and consumers to struggle to absorb those costs and therefore economic growth to be lower in the long term," said Ms English.

However she added it is very early days and probably too early to call that.