Paddy Power and FanDuel-owner Flutter Entertainment has forecast modest profit growth for 2026 far below analyst expectations due to challenges in the betting giant's main US market compounded by its misfiring attempts to win customers over with promotions and bonuses.
The world's largest online betting company reported a 21% jump in 2025 core profit last night but said it was expecting growth of just 4% this year to $2.97 billion, significantly below the $3.5 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG SmartEstimate.
The company's shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading on Wall Street.
Flutter said the guidance largely reflected lower levels of US customer engagement in the fourth quarter and into 2026 after it took more money from American football gamblers than its rivals during a run of favourable sports results.
While bookmakers tend to make more money when favourites lose, Flutter said the lack of marquee names in the closing stages of the NFL season meant customers were less interested in gambling during the key playoff games.
"We just didn't execute our generosity strategy as well as we should have done in the face of those results," Flutter CEO Peter Jackson told Reuters, referring to the promotions and bonuses gambling companies offer customers to keep them betting.
Jackson said FanDuel, which has a leading 41% share of the US market, plans to improve how it rewards customers to be "better positioned" for the 2026/27 NFL season, including by launching a loyalty programme in the second quarter.
Flutter also intends to increase planned investment in its new prediction markets platform launched in late December with derivatives exchange CME Group.
Prediction markets, which allow users to win money on the likelihood of specific events occurring, from sports and entertainment to politics and the economy, have surged into the mainstream in the US.
With FanDuel Predicts now offering non-sports markets in all 50 states and sports markets in 18 states including California, Texas and Florida where sports betting is illegal, Flutter expects investment to reduce 2026 core profit by the upper end of its previous $200-300m estimate.
