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Swiss economy rebounds in fourth quarter after US tariffs hit

US and Swiss flags on big containers
Swiss fourth-quarter growth reached 0.2% after the 0.5% slump in the previous quarter, new figures show today

Switzerland's economy returned to growth at the end of last year, mainly thanks to its services sector after steep US tariffs stalled exports and pulled down GDP in the third quarter.

Fourth-quarter growth reached 0.2% after the 0.5% slump in the previous quarter, when the key pharmaceutical and chemical sectors saw export declines, the economy ministry said in preliminary estimates.

"Growth in the services sector was muted, while the industrial sector stagnated," the ministry said, adding that "the challenging international environment slowed the exportoriented industry."

For 2025 as a whole, GDP growth reached 1.4%, up from 1.2% the previous year, and "well below Switzerland's average economic growth (1.8% since 1981)," the ministry said.

US President Donald Trump stunned Switzerland last August when he imposed a 39% duty on imports of goods from the country, among the highest in his global tariff campaign.

But in November the two countries said they had reached an agreement to lower the tariffs to 15%, with the Alpine nation vowing to invest $200 billion in the US to win over the White House.

"We suspect that household consumption remained quite strong because retail sales increased" by 0.8% in the fourth quarter, analysts at Capital Economics said.

"In contrast, previously released trade data showed that real exports of goods fell by 1.3% but imports rose by 0.1%," they said.

The Swiss government had warned that growth would be just 1.3% in 2025 before slowing to 0.9% growth this year, before the tariff deal with Washington was announced.

The ministry will publish final 2025 growth results on February 27.

"Looking ahead, we expect a small rebound in exports in the first quarter as firms increase shipments to the US in response to the tariff deal," Capital Economics said, forecasting growth of 0.5%.