Chocolate and cocoa product maker Barry Callebaut said today that it expected a mid single-digit percentage decline in sales of cocoa products in its upcoming financial year, as it continues to face pressure from high cocoa prices.
But its shares were up 3% this morning, with analysts identifying the company's free cash flow of 1.80 billion Swiss francs ($2.27 billion) in the second half of the year as a positive development.
The company, which supplies chocolate for Unilever's soon-to-be-spun-off Magnum ice creams and Nestle's KitKat bars, also forecast recurring core earnings (EBIT) growth in a low to mid single-digit percentage, measured in local currencies, for the 2025/26 financial year.
Barry Callebaut, whose ingredients are present in one out of four chocolate and cocoa products consumed worldwide, said its sales volume fell 6.8% to 2.1 million tonnes in the financial year ended in August.
Analysts were expecting 2.1 million tonnes on average, a company-provided poll showed.
Volumes fell 8% in the fourth quarter between June and August, according to a Reuters calculation.
Chief Financial Officer Peter Vanneste said that some customers are making their own chocolate instead of buying Barry Callebaut's product to save money.
"A few of our very large customers who also produce chocolate in house have been prioritising their own capacity as they saw temporarily lower demand," he added in a call with analysts.
Barry Callebaut is more exposed to fluctuations in cocoa bean prices than consumer-facing firms that sell chocolate to retail stores.
The Swiss firm buys cocoa beans that it processes into cocoa butter and powder. Its product is then used by manufacturers to produce chocolate and confectionary which is sold to consumers directly.
Analysts had contrasting reactions to the new forecast the Zurich-based company provided.
Vontobel's Matteo Lindauer said it was a "welcome shift" from last year's unattainable targets. However, Kepler Cheuvreux's Jon Cox called the targets cautious and said the stock may come under pressure as a result.
"Industry conditions stay challenging, as underscored by recent commentary from key customers such as Mondelez and Hershey," Lindauer said.
In October, Mondelez cut its annual profit forecast, citing weakening spending among value-conscious consumers in North America and Europe, while higher cost of cocoa added pressure.
