British inflation slowed as expected in May, pulled down by air fares which leapt in April and the correction of a tax data error, although food prices shot up at the fastest rate in more than a year.
Consumer prices rose in annual terms by 3.4% in May, the Office for National Statistics said today, just as a Reuters poll of economists and the Bank of England had predicted.
Services price inflation - a crucial metric for the Bank of England - cooled to 4.7% from 5.4% in April, matching the bank's forecast for May. The Reuters poll had pointed to a reading of 4.8%.
Earlier this month the ONS said April's headline consumer price inflation reading of 3.5% had been overstated by 0.1 percentage points due to an error in car tax data from the government.
April's figures were not amended, but the correct data was used for May's readings.
Air fares fell sharply after an Easter holiday spike in April's readings.
The data are unlikely to shift interest rate expectations among economists and investors who think the Bank of England will leave borrowing costs on hold when it announces its June policy decision tomorrow.
Gas, electricity and water prices rose in April alongside higher taxes on employers, causing inflation to leap from 2.6% in March. A rise in oil prices since the start of the Iran-Israel conflict last week could cause inflation to rise again.
Food prices rose by 4.4% in the 12 months to May, the biggest increase in over a year, the ONS said, a blow for low-income households.
Some Bank of England officials have said they disagree with the central bank's key assumption reached at its May meeting that the recent climb in inflation will not have longer-running effects on pricing behaviour.
Chief economist Huw Pill said last month the pace of interest rate cuts was too fast given still strong wage pressures on inflation, but his vote in May to keep borrowing costs on hold was likely to be "a skip" not a halt to rate cuts.
Market pricing points to an 87% chance that the Bank of England will leave rates on hold this week, with two 0.25 percentage-point cuts priced in by the year's end.
The Bank of England lowered rates by a quarter point to 4.25% on May 8 in a three-way split vote, with two Monetary Policy Committee members favouring a bigger cut and two - including Pill - favouring a hold.
The central bank said in May it expects inflation to peak at about 3.7% later this year. Some economists think April might prove to be the high point, although the conflict in the Middle East poses a risk of stronger price pressures.
