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EY forecasts 'reasonably solid' economic growth for coming years

According to EY, Ireland is set to outperform many economies around the world.
According to EY, Ireland is set to outperform many economies around the world.

Growth in the Irish economy will be "reasonably solid" in the coming years, according to the latest economic forecast from professional services firm EY.

This follows strong growth in Ireland in 2021 and 2022, and some normalisation last year.

EY expects Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to rise by 2.2% this year, and 3.8% in 2025.

Meanwhile, it predicts Modified Domestic Demand will grow by 2.2% this year and 2.5% in 2025.

According to EY, Ireland is set to outperform many economies around the world, exceeding forecasts for our neighbours in the Euro area and the UK and just above projections for the United States.

On the jobs front, EY is predicting employment growth of 1.6% this year, and 1.8% in 2025.

It also expects inflation to continue tracking lower, with the rate set to stand at 3% this year.

On a positive note for some mortgage holders, businesses and exporters, EY states that interest rate cuts by the European, US and UK Central Banks appear almost certain at some point in 2024.

"The international environment is still relatively weak and tighter monetary policy is biting... but it's also the case that inflation has moderated very markedly and that disinflation story is lending support to households' purchasing power," said Dr Loretta O'Sullivan, EY Ireland's chief economist.

"As we go through to this year we do expect that the ECB is going to start to cut interest rates - so the interest rate cycle is turing," she said. "For businesses that is positive in terms of better financing costs, which would support investment, and we would also see trading partner activity improve.

"That's going to lend some economic momentum, and that underpins our forecast."

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With all of this in mind, Dr O'Sullivan said the outlook for next year is stronger.

However, in order to keep pace with global markets, she said a number of things need to happen - including training and upskilling the workforce, investing in necessary infrastructure, accelerating the green transition and harnessing the potential of new technologies such as Artificial Intelligence.

"Investment is very important," Dr O'Sullivan said. "When we think about the economy and how economies grow it is through labour, capital, productivity investment and the National Development Plan.

"That lifts the growth potential of the economy - delivering on that is going to be key."

After flattening in 2023, EY also expects the Northern Irish economy to expand - by 0.7% this year and 1.6% in 2025.

However there is the potential for the rate to be higher.

"Our forecasts were done just ahead of the announcement and the restoration of power sharing, and the return of a Stormont government, so there's upside risk to them," Dr O'Sullivan said. "They could be better - the return of Stormont is a positive in terms of investment and we'll see that coming through over the medium term."

While there is much to be positive about, Dr O'Sullivan said a number of global headwinds remain.

"Geopolitical tensions are high, particularly with the continuing war in Ukraine, the Middle East conflict and the recent attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which are disrupting global supply chains.

"With over half of the world’s population eligible to vote in elections in 2024, it is also a year of significant electoral change which brings a level of uncertainty," she added.