The risk to the national electricity grid of power cuts this winter is less than last year, according to the grid's operator EirGrid.
However, in its Winter Outlook published today, EirGrid said there is a still a "reasonable probability" that supply will not meet demand, but it hopes to avoid this by managing power use by data centres and the introduction of emergency generation.
Recent winters have seen the gap between electricity supply and demand come under strain as demand from data centres has gone up, older generation plants have broken down and not enough newer plants have been built.
Last winter, there were no so-called 'amber alerts', but there was one in June.
This coming winter, EirGrid believes the risk of alerts is still there, but the number of hours judged to be under a measure called Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) has more than halved compared to last winter.
The grid operator said the introduction of agreement on mandatory reduction in power usage by large energy users in times of emergency and the gradual introduction of emergency gas and diesel generating capacity has reduced the system’s exposure.
Based on estimates from EirGrid, customers could be exposed to a loss of electricity for up to two hours this winter, and mid-December is likely to be the point during the winter when supply is expected to be most under pressure.
However, this metric was four hours last winter and customers did not, in fact, end up losing any power due to capacity problems on the grid.
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No system-wide blackout risk - EirGrid
EirGrid said there is no risk of a system-wide blackout this winter due to insufficient generation capacity.
EirGrid CEO Mark Foley said: "The margin between supply and demand this winter may be tight at times particularly over the 5-7 pm evening peak.
"However, this winter, we do have more capacity becoming available to us over the coming months.
"This includes the Temporary Emergency Generation units that will gradually become available to us from next month.
"This is an insurance policy that will only be used if required to secure electricity supply."
Emergency units in the North Wall area of Dublin Port are currently in testing while additional gas-fired generators in Huntstown, Co Dublin, are expected to come onstream in December.
Emergency diesel units in Shannonbridge and Tarbert are expected by the end of this year and into early 2024.
The ESB has also agreed to keep Moneypoint open until 2029 solely for emergency use.
It is planned to convert it from coal to oil to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases.
The latest figures from the CSO show that data centres increased their power consumption by 31% in 2022 and now account for 18% of electricity used.
