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SCSI expects national property prices to rise by 2% over next year

43% of estate agents who are members of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland said they believe prices are increasing but will level off soon
43% of estate agents who are members of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland said they believe prices are increasing but will level off soon

The latest Mid-Year Market Monitor from the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland predicts that national property prices will increase by an average of 2% over the next year.

43% of estate agents who are members of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland said they believe prices are increasing but will level off soon.

14% said they believe prices are falling but will level off shortly while 11% believe prices are starting to fall. A further 14% of SCSI estate agents believe prices have peaked and should start to decline.

John O'Sullivan, Chair of the SCSI Practice & Policy Committee, said the vast majority of SCSI agents and valuers expect property prices to rise over the next year for three main reasons.

This is due to the continuing shortage of supply, interest rate increases and changes in the wider economy.

"While the supply situation has shown a modest improvement - 71% of agents reporting low stock levels compared to 81% a year ago - the number of properties available for sale is still far below pre pandemic levels," he said.

He noted that property website MyHome.ie has around 14,000 listings for sale, while this figure was 20,000 pre-Covid.

In today's monitor, the SCSI included five scenarios involving couples earning average salaries of €89,000.

The scenarios show the affordability gap, if any, which exists between the total mortgage purchase limit available to a couple on average incomes looking to buy their first home and average new house purchase prices in different locations.

For a couple on a combined salary of €89,000 who want to buy a new home and who have the 10% deposit having availed of the Help to Buy relief, will afford to buy in three of the five locations - Meath, Cork and Galway.

But prospective buyers in Wicklow will face a shortfall of over €83,000 in Wicklow and of almost €32,000 in Kildare.

John O'Sullivan said the figures showed that affordability and viability remained the critical issues for the Irish property market.

"These figures show that while it is undoubtedly a challenge, it is possible for couples on average salaries to buy a new home in various parts of the country. It is also heartening to see that affordability has improved in Meath over the last 12 months. Cork and Galway were not included last year," Mr O'Sullivan said.

But he added that new homes remain totally out of reach of people on average salaries in the commuter belt counties of Wicklow and Kildare - where prices can be similar to Dublin.

"This is no doubt a huge issue for young people looking to purchase a home in those counties. In addition, there are thousands of people on salaries below this level across the country who are not able to buy and who will require support," he added.

Meanwhile, the SCSI also tracks members' views on the activity of landlords placing their investment properties on the market for sale.

The number of agents reporting landlords were placing their properties - many would just have one - peaked in the fourth quarter of last year, but since then, the figure has reduced slightly.

John O’Sullivan says while the figure may have reduced in the most recent quarter, landlords are continuing to leave the market.