Urban transport services would have to be massively curtailed with people asked to walk or cycle in the event of a major loss or outage of energy supplies.
In a risk paper on how Ireland would cope in the event of a power crisis, the National Transport Authority (NTA) said it would have to figure out the critical services that had to be kept running.
It said with a 20% fall in fuel supplies – public transport would have to be cut to a 'Saturday plus' level of service on all routes.
If 50% of fuel supply was unavailable, then every second service would run, while prioritising "critical services".
For a near collapse in supply, with an 80% reduction in fuel – most urban services would have to be curtailed "as walking [and] cycling are viable alternatives for most customers".
The presentation said key services would have to be worked out in discussions with agencies like the HSE, the gardaí, and the Department of Social Protection.
The NTA said they were running simulation exercises to see what would happen in the event of a major failure, including fuel rationing, cyberattack, flooding, landslides, or the collapse of a bridge.
The risk paper said they were considering holding a reserve fleet of "recently ‘retired’ buses" in the event of a crisis.
These could be rolled out if there was a major rail or Luas failure, or if a "systemic component failure" in the existing fleet led to a vehicle recall.
It said Irish Rail had been securing additional stocks of fuel since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while bus provider Go Ahead were maintaining full stocks of fuel.
The NTA paper said if a major rail failure occurred, there was limited bus capacity available to step in but that some capacity could be available abroad.
It also warned of trying to develop new bus schedules quickly in the event of a major failure.
The presentation said: "Operators typically take weeks for minor schedule changes and months for major changes. In the event of a major failure a response in days will be required."
It said a major infrastructure malfunction or breakdown would test the capacity of Irish Rail and Luas operators Transdev.
"Responding to a major failure would require significant international support which may not be readily available," said the presentation.
The presentation, made to the NTA board in January, said in a worst case scenario, there could be deaths, injuries, and material damage.
It warned of negative publicity and reputational damage as well as "intense political and media scrutiny and safety investigation".
The slideshow said the key risks for Irish Rail were flooding, a landslide, coastal erosion, bridge collapse, vandalism, or a depot fire.
Similar worst case scenarios for Luas, Dublin Bus, Bus Éireann, Go Ahead, and local services, were also outlined.
Asked about the presentation, which was released under FOI, a spokesman for the NTA said they had nothing further to add to the contents.
- reporting Ken Foxe
