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New home supply to drop-off from mid-2023, Lisney says

Commencement notices for new schemes began to decline during summer 2022.
Commencement notices for new schemes began to decline during summer 2022.

The supply of new homes will drop-off from mid-2023 due to a decline in commencement notices for new schemes, according to new data from estate agent Lisney.

Last year, nationwide housing completions were at their highest level in 13 years with an estimated 26,000 units finished, while this remains 25% higher than the previous three years, Lisney said this still remains well below what is required.

With rising construction costs taking hold, the figures show that commencement notices for new schemes began to decline during summer 2022.

Heading into 2023, the data from Lisney shows that the number of residential properties for sale in Dublin was almost 60% higher than the 12 months previous.

Lisney said this will mean fewer instances of frustrated buyers bidding far in excess of asking prices in the coming months.

"Part of the supply increase is being fuelled by weary investors selling their buy-to-lets as life as a landlord has become too stressful with rent caps and eviction bans along with possible additional changes," it said.

"Further investors will also leave the market this year which will be good news for buyers but unwelcome news for renters with even more difficulties in a severely undersupplied lettings market."

Today's report shows that €5.7bn was invested in commercial property assets last year.

Lisney said that while the overall commercial property market dynamics changed last summer as interest rate increases took hold, the industrial occupation sector remained strong in 2022.

"Currently, numerous high-profile occupiers are seeking space or negotiating deals," it said.

"Entering the new year, combined requirements exceeded 460,000 sqm across Dublin, the equivalent to between 15 and 18 months take-up."

Lisney said the two main talking points in the Dublin office market last year were the adjustments in the global tech industry and continued remote and hybrid working.

"Both trends resulted in the rise of grey space, where there is now 180,000 sqm available and more is due in 2023," it said.

"Currently, this is 32% of all supply and accounts for 5.1 percentage points of the 13% city centre vacancy rate."

Lisney said works will continue on office buildings under construction, but said there will be little or no new starts in the near term.

It said this is due to the higher cost of both finance and building materials.

Retail wise, today's report shows that Grafton Street had a very successful year in 2022.

The vacancy rate, based on the number of units, fell to 7.6%, with seven new operators taking stores.

These retailers were mainly from overseas and agreed deals on adjusted terms to those sought prior to the pandemic.

While the figures show that the vacancy rate is higher on Henry Street - close to 13%, Lisney said there will be further interest in this area during the 2023.

However, it said retailers will continue to assess the ongoing viability of their business, which may result in renegotiated property deals