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Ryanair profit forecast upgraded after strong Christmas

Ryanair operated over 65,500 flights in December
Ryanair operated over 65,500 flights in December

Ryanair has upgraded its profit guidance for the year, on foot of stronger performance over the Christmas and New Year period, driven by pent-up demand and no adverse impact from either Covid-19 or the Ukraine War.

As a result it said this evening that it now expects its profit after tax before exceptionals to be in the range of €1.325bn to €1.425bn up from previously guided €1bn to €1.2bn.

"This guidance remains heavily dependent upon avoiding adverse events in Q4 (such as Covid or the war in Ukraine)," it said in a statement ahead of its third quarter results due on January 30th.

It added that its passenger traffic guidance of 168m for the year remains unchanged, far ahead of its previous record of 149 million.

It also said it expects the final quarter of its financial year to be loss making because of the absence of Easter from March, and a recent softening in UK outbound and Irish-UK traffic and pricing.

Meanwhile, earlier today the airline said it flew a total of 11.5 million passengers in December, up 3% on its previous pre-Covid high for the Christmas travel period, Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers said today.

It has reported flying more passengers than the corresponding pre-pandemic period in each of the last nine months.

Group chief executive Michael O'Leary had flagged at the start of December that Christmas bookings were running ahead of 2019 levels.

Average air fares were also up by a low double-digit percentage as passengers travelled without restrictions for the first time in three years.

Ryanair flew 9.5 million passengers last December and just 1.9 million in December 2020.

The average proportion of empty seats per flight held steady at 8% for the second successive month in December and compared to 5% in December 2019.

The airline said its load factor - how many seats it fills on each flight - rose to 92% from 81%.

Ryanair said it operated over 65,500 flights in December 2022.