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Housing market seeing resilient demand and moderating price inflation - Sherry FitzGerald

The average value of second-hand homes in Ireland increased by 5.7% in 2022, new figures from Sherry FitzGerald show
The average value of second-hand homes in Ireland increased by 5.7% in 2022, new figures from Sherry FitzGerald show

New figures from estate agents Sherry FitzGerald show that the average value of second-hand homes in Ireland increased by 5.7% in 2022.

This is down on the growth of 9.6% recorded in 2021, as the market last year recovered from the effects of Covid-19 restrictions.

Sherry FitzGerald said the price of second hand homes in Dublin grew 5.2% in the year, compared to 7.2% in 2021.

It noted that price growth continued to be stronger outside of Dublin, with average values nationally excluding Dublin rising 6.4% in 2022.

Sales activity remained "healthy" during the year, with volumes ahead of 2021 and also above pre-Covid-19 levels.

In the first three quarters of 2022, about 41,940 sales were recorded on the property price register (PPR), excluding block sales and new homes bought for social housing.

This marked a 7.3% jump on the first nine months of 2021, and a 7.6% increase on the same time in 2019.

Today's figures show that new homes sales nationally increased 35.1% on the same time in 2021, while they were up 16.8% on 2019, as developments which had been previously delayed due to Covid-19 related public health restrictions were completed and sold.

But the estate agents said the latest data on supply reveals a more "worrying" trend with the number of planning permissions granted in the third quarter of 2022 down 43% year on year.

Commencements have also slowed, with the latest data from October showing that residential housing starts are down 31% on 2021.

Meanwhile, owner occupiers remained the most active purchasing cohort in the market during the year and represented 79% of all second-hand home purchases made through Sherry FitzGerald in the year.

First time buyers comprised over 40% of all owner occupiers, the estate agent added.

Marian Finnegan, Managing Director of Sherry FitzGerald, said that after the above trend price inflation in the post Covid era, 2022 saw a return to more moderate price growth, with average values growing by just under 6% compared to almost 10% in the previous year.

"This trend is expected to continue into 2023 with overall prices anticipated to increase by less than 3% in the year ahead," Ms Finnegan said.

She also said that the binding nature of the Central Bank's macroprudential rules over the past number of years has kept price inflation at more moderate levels in the capital, where average values are higher.

"For a variety of reasons including the easing of the rules for first-time buyers, we expect to see a convergence in the levels of price inflation in Dublin and nationally," she added.

Sherry FitzGerald also noted that as has been the trend for over a decade, the exodus of landlords from the rental market continued unabated in the year with just 13% of purchases made by investors.

36% of all sales were investors selling their properties, signalling a huge disparity between those entering and exiting the market.

"After two turbulent years, hopes were high that 2022 would see a return to normality. Unfortunately, it was not to be," Marian Finnegan said.

"The war in Ukraine and the associated economic challenges have all created increased uncertainty. That said, demand for all categories of property remained quite robust in 2022, with transaction volumes, surpassing their pre-pandemic levels. Further growth to over 60,000 transactions is expected for 2023, with particularly robust activity in rural and coastal areas," she said.

"For property, the most direct impact of uncertainty was on construction. While house completions are expected to exceed 26,000 this year, the anticipated V-shaped recovery in supply is now less likely. As such, a significant supply deficit will persist," she stated.