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ECB survey says euro zone economy will stagnate in 2023

The ECB survey respondents also predict an increase in inflation to 8.3% this year, 5.8% next year and 2.4% in 2024
The ECB survey respondents also predict an increase in inflation to 8.3% this year, 5.8% next year and 2.4% in 2024

An ECB survey of professional forecasters predicts the euro area economy will "broadly stagnate" in the first quarter of next year with growth of just 0.1%.

From the third quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, the survey predicts a cumulative fall in the rate of growth of 0.7%.

This is due to inflation eating into the purchasing power of households, a weaker global economy and tighter monetary policy.

The survey respondents also predict an increase in inflation to 8.3% this year, 5.8% next year and 2.4% in 2024. This is broadly in line, although slightly above, the ECB’s own updated forecasts.

This is based on higher electricity and gas prices and the pass through of higher inflation to the price of other goods and services and higher wages.

The survey predicts core inflation, which strips out food and energy, to be 4% this year and 3.9% next year.

Meanwhille, euro zone sentiment fell to a two-year low in October, data showed today, as confidence in industry and services declined.

But but there was slight comfort from some views of future improvements and from a decline in inflation expectations.

The European Commission's monthly economic sentiment index fell to 92.5 points in October from 93.6 in September, exactly in line with the average forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

Confidence fell in industry and services, but picked up slightly for construction, retail trade and among consumers, Commission's data showed, the latter bouncing back from a record low in data stretching back to 2000.

Manufacturers became more downbeat on order books and the production trend over recent months, although took a slightly more positive view on production expectations.

In services, companies were also more negative on business over the past three months and took a similar view for demand over the next quarter.

Consumers gave a grim assessment of current conditions, but were a little more upbeat on their view for the economy and their own financial situations the next year, although signalled no greater readiness to make major purchases.

Inflation and selling price expectations dipped for consumers and industry, although were higher for services, providing some comfort to the European Central Bank, which raised interest rates to their highest level since 2009 this week.

It said "substantial" progress had already been made in its bid to fight off a historic surge in inflation.