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Germany forecasts recession, soaring inflation in 2023

The German economy is still set to register growth of 1.4% in 2022, but will shrink by 0.4% in 2023
The German economy is still set to register growth of 1.4% in 2022, but will shrink by 0.4% in 2023

Germany's output will contract by 0.4% next year and inflation is expected to hit 7%, the government forecast today, as Europe's top economy battles soaring energy prices following Russia's gas shutdown.

"We are currently experiencing a serious energy crisis, which threatens to become an economic and social crisis," warned Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

He made his comments as he unveiled the official autumn economic forecasts for Germany.

Germany, along with the rest of Europe, is facing skyrocketing prices - particularly of energy - after Moscow shut off crucial fossil fuel supplies as tensions soar over its war in Ukraine.

Its economy is still set to register growth of 1.4% in 2022, according to the government forecasts, after having enjoyed a post-pandemic rebound earlier in the year.

But it will shrink 0.4% in 2023, with the economy ministry saying the "central reason" for the downgrade from forecasts earlier this year was "the halt to Russian gas supplies".

High energy prices are acting as "a brake on industrial production - above all in energy-intensive sectors". The economy will return to growth with expansion of 2.3% in 2024, according to the forecasts.

Inflation meanwhile will be 8% in 2022 and 7% in 2023, the government forecast.

The government recently unveiled a €200 billion fund to shield consumers and businesses from surging prices, which includes a cap on energy costs.

Without the cap, consumer prices would be much higher in 2023, the forecasts said.

Germany has been particularly hard hit by Moscow's shutdown of gas, having sourced a massive chunk of its supplies from Russia prior to the Ukraine war.

But Habeck said he was "convinced" that Russian President Vladimir Putin will "fail in this attempt to destabilise the basic economic and political order".

Putin "will also fail on the battlefield in Ukraine", he added.