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H&M lags Zara-owner Inditex in race to regain lost sales

Fashion retailers have been recovering from the blow in 2020 from the pandemic as economies reopen and restrictions ease
Fashion retailers have been recovering from the blow in 2020 from the pandemic as economies reopen and restrictions ease

The world's two biggest fashion groups are due to unveil quarterly sales figures on Wednesday.

Number one Inditex is seen back at pre-pandemic levels as stores reopen and people long to renew their wardrobe, while H&M still has some way to go.

Fashion retailers have been recovering from the blow in 2020 from the pandemic as economies reopen and restrictions ease.

But the recent spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus has caused the reintroduction of some restrictions.

Analysts said Zara-owner Inditex' recovery in the quarter probably got an extra boost from remaining best-in-class at speed and from a strong overall recovery in its core market Spain.

It was helped also by better sales in China, where H&M has taken a hit since it expressed concerns in 2019 about alleged human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region.

"We expect Inditex to have shown the stronger sales performance over the summer, helped by its more premium positioning, fashion offer and better performance in China. However H&M's margin and cashflow development should be strong," RBC analyst Richard Chamberlain said.

Analysts on average see Spain-based Inditex' sales at €7.02 billion in the three months to July, its fiscal second quarter, according to Refinitiv SmartEstimates.

This is up 48% from a year earlier and 2% higher than in the same period of 2019.

Inditex' sales in May and early June were twice as high as a year earlier as shoppers splashed out on post-lockdown shopping sprees.

Net profit at the Spanish group is seen at €872ms, up 307% and up 7%, respectively.

Analysts said that the lifting of travel restrictions, the unwinding of remote working and the return of social events should all boost demand for fashion apparel.

But challenges remain. Sales at low-cost fashion retailer Primark, which does not have an online presence, fell short of management expectations in its latest quarter, its figures showed today.

Swedish H&M's sales for the June-August period, its fiscal third quarter, are seen up 14% year-on-year but down 9% from 2019, according to Refinitiv SmartEstimates.

Its sales statement on Wednesday comes ahead of a full-year earnings report on September 30.

Industries around the world are being affected by a shortage of shipping containers and other global supply chain bottlenecks that have led to delays and soaring transport costs, but H&M and Inditex appear at little risk of empty shelves currently.

"Neither will be immune from it, but for the rest of this year currency (a weaker US dollar) should more than offset the impact from rising raw material and shipping costs on margins, while both companies are strong at securing an adequate supply of inventory," RBC's Chamberlain said.

H&M's sales were hit in China where in March it was wiped off Tmall and domestic phonemakers' app stores after it in 2019 expressed concerns about alleged human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region.